Books Are Giving You A Gift Line Today

Giants vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

I've mentioned this a few times in the past, but sometimes you look at the board and go, "This is off." There might not be a rhyme or reason specifically that you can point your finger on it, but something about the game just screams that the line posted is giving you value. I didn't share it, so I won't take credit for it, but I felt way about the Angels yesterday. Unfortunately, it was not a play I wrote up. Today, I won't make that mistake as the Giants take on the Pirates in a game the books obviously have misjudged. 

The Giants have dipped below .500 and are likely going to stay out of the playoff race from here on out. They are still ahead of the Diamondbacks, and a good week could vault them into contention again. However, I'm just not sure this team will play consistently enough to find a way into the Wild Card spots. They've peaked and dropped over and over again this year. Since the All-Star Break, the team has struggled, winning just four games. They have a good staff and a tough lineup. It probably shouldn't be happening this way, but here we are. Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants and he always gives them a chance to get a win. Webb has been worse on the road than he has at home, but his ERA is still under 4 on the road. He had a few rough starts last month, allowing 19 earned runs in July, and just 33 in the months combined prior. August is a new opportunity. He did face the Pirates in his most recent outing and allowed just one earned run over 5.2 innings. 

Jul 30, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mike Burrows (53) looks on against the San Francisco Giants in the second inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

The Pirates are not going anywhere and did trade away some pieces at the deadline. I'm not quite sure they got the return they were expecting, but they also didn't deal pieces I expected to see go. What is somewhat impressive about Pittsburgh is that they are actually a winning team at home. They are just extremely bad on the road. That somewhat reminds me of the Colorado Rockies from previous years. This year's Rockies team is just a disaster all the way around. The Pirates are 15 games under .500, and I think if they finish within 10 games of .500, it should be viewed as a successful season, considering the roster. Today they send out Mike Burrows to the mound. He has been good in limited work. Over the course of 58 innings, he has allowed 25 earned runs, and produced a 3.88 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He did face the Giants in his last game as well, and allowed just three hits, and one earned run over six innings while striking out seven. 

When I first looked at the line on this game I was pretty shocked. I couldn't believe that the Giants were not heavier favorites. I guess the book is taking into consideration their current form. However, this has gotten a bit out of hand here. Webb should be a -165 or better favorite in this situation. I'm taking the Giants for two units and backing them to coast to a win against the Pirates. 

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