Blue Devils Should Coast Against Wolfpack

Duke vs. North Carolina State, 7:00 ET

I wouldn't call it a good weekend. It never is when you go 1-2, but it wasn't brutal either. Sometimes it is just as important to limit the damage as it is to actually be successful. In this case, I lost two games Saturday and then took down the only game I played yesterday in a matchup where Memphis won by almost 20 over UAB. Now we shift our attention to Monday's slate where we get a lot fewer games than the weekend. Tonight, we get a game between Duke and North Carolina State with only a few games remaining in the regular season.

Duke has put together a solid enough season with a 23-6 record overall, and has gone 14-4 in the ACC. That's good for second in the conference behind their arch-rival North Carolina Tar Heels. I've brought this up before, but I'm not quite sure that Duke is that great of a team. I do like Duke quite a bit and think the Jon Scheyer will be a good coach for a long time, but something about them makes me think that we are still not getting everything out of the squad overall. I suppose the first few losses they suffered this season were understandable as the team was trying to gel. Later in the year, they lost to Pittsburgh at home, which is one of the games that just doesn't make much sense to me. Their other two losses were both road losses, one against Wake Forest (their most recent loss) and the other against North Carolina, one of the best teams in the country. We were right about the Wake Forest game and picked up a unit, as it was kind of an obvious spot for a loss. This is the last road game for Duke of the season and one right before they face North Carolina in a rematch before the season ends. In this game, Duke should win with ease as long as they stay focused in this game and don't start looking ahead to the next game. 

North Carolina State is just 17-12 on the year, sitting at 8th in the ACC. The majority of their losses have come in the conference as they are just 9-9 against their opponents. This is a tough conference, so going .500 is actually pretty respectable. They are struggling lately as they've lost three of their past five games and gone just 4-8 over their last 12 games. The Wolfpack have lost a few home games as well, so it isn't just road issues for them. They have dropped two of their past four home games. The losses came at the hands of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. They certainly have been competitive at home at least. Overall, they've lost four home games and only one of them has come by more than six points. The squad is highlighted by a good backcourt duo that combine to score 29.8 points per game. That won't be enough to beat Duke as they also bolster a strong backcourt, and one that is good at defense. They will need their forwards to clean the glass and stop Kyle Filipowski. The problem is that only one guy averages more than five rebounds per game and he only plays 18 minutes per game. They might need a lot out of him (Mohhamed Diarra) tonight if they want to keep this game close.

I think in this game we will probably have a bit of a struggle to get over the 149.5. I don't recommend playing the under as I think this game will see plenty of offense, it is just that I think the number is fair so there isn't much room either side for any error. Instead, I think Duke wins this game and covers the 6.5 spread. They are the better team and are the one I have more confidence in getting stops down the stretch if needed. I also don't think that North Carolina State has much of a chance on the glass. 

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