Big East Tourney Is Spread Too Low

Villanova vs. Marquette, 9:30 ET

There are a lot of games on the board and I'm not sure that the ones I'm betting on are going to be the most entertaining, but what I like to do is win money. That's more entertaining than watching any game anyway. While other games might pop out to you, this game stood out to me because I think the line is wrong for a few reasons. Tonight we will have a play in the Big East tournament as Villanova takes on Marquette in hopes of continuing a run that almost ended yesterday against a terrible team. 

Let's cut right to the chase, Villanova is lucky to even be playing in this game. Yesterday, they played DePaul one of the worst teams in the Big East. How bad is DePaul? They were 3-28 before the loss last night. Villanova scored late to give them a one-point lead and win the game 58-57. They left time on the clock and an embarrassing play from DePaul where they ended up turning the ball over was the ending result. DePaul didn't shoot ridiculously well, or play out of this world. They had a few more rebounds than Villanova and a few less turnovers, but they shot 36.7% from the floor, lower than what Villanova put up. Was this a game that Villanova just overlooked and the played poorly? Perhaps, but they are only 18-14 on the season and 10-10 in the conference. The team is led by Eric Dixon, a good forward who can score inside and stretch the floor when needed. The one saving grace for Villanova is that none of their starters played that many more minutes than they normally do. That means they might not be too exhausted, but they do still have to play a back-to-back and that's a problem for a lot of professional teams. 

SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MARCH 24: Justin Moore #5 of the Villanova Wildcats drives past Frankie Collins #10 of the Michigan Wolverines during the second half of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Round at AT&T Center on March 24, 2022 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Marquette is currently ranked 10th in the nation and is coming into this game with a rest advantage. You can make the argument of rest vs. rust, but I don't think that matters much here. Marquette did struggle a bit late in the season as they lost three of their final seven games, but those were to UConn on the road (who probably will win the NCAA Tournament), Creighton on the road, and UConn at home. They've played Villanova twice this season and were able to win both of those games. In the first one, which took place on their home floor, Marquette was able to get a 13-point victory as they dominated that game essentially from start to finish. In the second game, at Villanova, they escaped with a five-point victory. To me, that was more about it being a road game than it was about Villanova making the necessary adjustments to keep the game closer. Marquette is one of the more balanced teams in the nation. They can attack you from the outside or the inside. I think their guards are better than Villanova's and I think their forward will combine to exceed whatever Dixon and his peers can produce. 

Frankly, I'm surprised this line is too low. Maybe it is a trap and Villanova comes out and plays an amazing game after the embarrassment that took place yesterday. However, I think this game should be in favor of Marquette, and I think they cover the -3.5 in this one. I think it probably goes under the 140 total, but I feel less confident in that. I'm taking the Golden Eagles to cover the small line here against an inferior opponent. 

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