Big 10, Big Arena, Big Chance For Under

Maryland vs. Oregon, 5:00 ET

Basketball tends to get a bit of a bad rap, but for one month a year, everyone seems to love it and fall in love with it again. Obviously, March is the month that people love. It might be due to the finality of it all. It could be that this is the month where memories and legends are made. While most think about the NCAA Tournament, I always love these Conference Tournaments where teams start to make runs. Maryland and Oregon will not make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big 10 Conference Tournament. That's unlikely to happen, but one of them will win this game today, and that's a start, at least. 

Maryland had a rough season going 11-20 for the year and just 4-16 in Big 10 play. They had moments where they looked like a fairly competent team, but there were also some truly horrendous games from the Terrapins. Before Big 10 play even began, they lost to Gonzaga by 39, and Alabama by 33 in back-to-back games. They did lose their best player, Pharrell Payne, but I can't say that's the reason the season tanked. I think it is just the reason it got so out of control. They were likely to be bad anyway. Their only wins against conference opponents came from playing Penn State, Minnesota, Iowa, and Washington. Their wins weren't overly convincing, aside from the Penn State game, but the victory over Iowa was good. They did play Oregon earlier in the season, a game they hosted, and they lost that one by ten points. In their last four games, all losses, they were at least reasonably competitive in three of the four. The loss to Wisconsin was comical, losing by 33. The other losses were to Nebraska by 13, Rutgers by four, and Illinois by six. 

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA;  Maryland Terrapins guard Andre Mills (7) dribbles by Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) during the second  half at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Oregon wasn't much better this season, but they were at least better, going 12-19 for the year. They also were 5-15 for the season in Big 10 games this year. The similarities between the two squads don't stop there. Jackson Shelstad only played 12 games for the team this season. He is out with a hand injury. There was a truly terrible stretch where they lost 10 straight games, but they've come out on the other side of that, winning three of their past five games to close out the year. There were some blowout losses in their season as well, Illinois beat them by 26, Nebraska beat them by 35, but most of the rest were by 15 or fewer points, with many being under 10. Their wins in conference play came against Maryland, Penn State, USC, Wisconsin, and Washington. Just like Maryland's win over Iowa, the most impressive win for the Ducks was against Wisconsin. Aside from that, this was largely a lost season that didn't have many highlights for Oregon. 

I normally would say this game has too high of a total, but we've already seen it go down a few points. The game is being played at the United Center, and the teams will likely struggle with their shooting. Playing in a big arena can be intimidating, and this is a neutral site for both teams, so neither fan base is likely to have an edge. I like the idea of taking the Terrapins with the points, but Oregon is certainly in better form. It is a bit of a toss-up, which means getting +4.5 is not a bad look in my opinion. However, I think the best idea is to play the first half under 64.5. I think it will be a struggle for the teams to figure out the shooting here. I also just don't think either team is that good to put up a ton of points on the other. Maryland averages 30 points per game in the first half on the road and just 32 overall. Oregon is at 32 on the road, and 34 overall. You're asking them to overperform. I think they will underperform. Give me the first half under. 

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