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This season has been very successful for best bets on the NFL. The Postseason has brought us a ton of success on the Bengals and some of the other games. But, perhaps more than anything, we saw a ton of success on first touchdown scorer props this year. At one point, we profited something like 20+ units in the span of a month. This piece will be about touchdown props for the Super Bowl.
To start, not all of these can win. If I tell you I’m betting three guys to score the first touchdown, I am aware that all three could lose, and that two will definitely lose. It is about value and me trying to identify the best possible ways for us to play them. Last year the first touchdown scorer was Gronkowski, he is Brady’s security blanket. If we are looking for that this year, we look no further than Cooper Kupp.
Kupp is currently at +490 to score the first touchdown. I will not play it. Just won’t do it. I wrote in another piece about not letting Aaron Donald beat you. You also can’t let Cooper Kupp beat you offensively. That’s why I’m playing two different players from the Rams – one is Odell Beckham at +800 and the other is Van Jefferson at +1600. Beckham should see a lot of action as the Bengals try to stop Kupp as much as possible. Jefferson is a valuable wide receiver that can catch some deep balls and has the occasional redzone look from Stafford.
On the other side, I’m taking Tee Higgins at +1200 to score the first touchdown. I mentioned this in the receiving props piece: Ja’Marr Chase likely has Jalen Ramsey draped all over him in the game. Higgins has had many big games for the Bengals this season and I don’t expect that to change. Burrow is comfortable finding him in the red zone. Maybe none of these hit, but they are all worth a risk for me and logically make sense of why it would happen. (If you’re looking for one other Bengal, I’d put CJ Uzomah.)
For first-team touchdown scorer, these plays are less in return than first overall scorer, but I would be willing to play Beckham for the Rams and that’s about it. This eliminates 50% of the potential players for competition and still pays at +490, which is better than 50% of the first overall touchdown scorer payout.
As far as value plays, I will put a small play on both Burrow and Stafford to score touchdowns. If the ball gets stopped at the 1-yard line, either of them could sneak it in. There are often bets available of shortest touchdown score over 1.5 yards with the juice on the under. So, to me, this is just more a bet that there will be a short score available and one of them will try to secure the ball in the endzone rather than risk the handoff. Stafford is +600 and Burrow is +500.