Betting Ideas For The AL Cy Young Race

We’ve talked about MVP, so let’s switch over to the pitching equivalent of the award, the Cy Young. Sure, a pitcher can win MVP, but it is a bit rare and this award only goes to pitchers, plus there is a ton of value out there. So, let’s take a look at where we should tie up a bit of our money for this year’s AL Cy Young winner. 

Starting with the favorite, Gerrit Cole at +500, we can consider taking the guy who won last year to repeat. Don’t forget, he was a nominee in 2021 and 2019 as well. Maybe it is just success in an odd year and in the even years he is not quite as dominant. Sure, it sounds weird but the Giants won three championships all in even years and were average the next season. Honestly, at 5:1, I just can’t justify taking him. He might be the best pitcher, on a team that should be great, but I don’t see value here. 

Kevin Gausman and Framber Valdez are the next two favorites on the board. Gausman was a finalist last season and took home the NL Cy Young just a few years ago. He put up solid numbers for the Blue Jays last year with a 3.16 ERA and 237 strikeouts. This wasn’t that much different than the first year of production with the Blue Jays, but this time it earned him a nomination. To me that isn’t a reflection of improvement on his end, but that the rest of the league was performing slightly worse than before. I’ve been a big supporter of Valdez, mostly because he’s made me a ton of money. He was one of the most reliable pitchers in 2022 posting quality start after quality start. Last year wasn’t quite as clean, but still a good overall performance with 20 quality starts and a 3.45 ERA. In fact if it wasn’t for a struggle in July and April, he would’ve probably been stronger consideration last year for the award. If I had to back either of these guys it would be Valdez. 

TORONTO, ON - MAY 16:  Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on May 16, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

Corbin Burnes is a guy that you should consider for the award this season at 10:1. He is moving over to Baltimore after years with Milwaukee. He was on track to get his second NL award last year, but that was a bit derailed. Now he is on what should be one of the best teams in baseball in Baltimore. This is going to go one of two ways, in my opinion. He either will be extremely dominant, or he will be absolutely torched by opponents. I’d probably wait a couple of weeks to make a decision and see what his odds get to. If he starts hot, the odds will maybe drop to +750 and if he starts slowly, he could get up much higher and be a good option as he could finish the year strong. 

Some longshots that I like: Luis Castillo is one of the better pitchers in the league and doesn’t get much attention because he has pitched in Seattle and Cincinnati. Last season, he was 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA and seventh in strikeouts. Those numbers aren’t that far off from what Gausman put up. I think he is a good value and my pick at +1300. Nathan Eovaldi was one of the best pitchers in the playoffs. Can he do that for an entire season? Maybe. He seems very comfortable in Texas. The deep run could impact him this season, but he put up strong numbers last season. I think he has good value at +3000. 

A few quick hits for you: I think Marcus Stroman has a ton of value at +6500. He was injured a bit last season, but through June he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. I’m not worried about him going to the Yankees, he already played for the Mets and Cubs so he has tons of experience with the media attention. I’d take a share of him at that number. Justin Verlander continues to defy all odds and is +7500, I like that as well. Pablo Lopez will not win the award, don’t take it. Dylan Cease might not even be in the AL by the end of the season, skip him. Shane Bieber is good and so is Tarik Skubal, but I’m not convinced they get through the whole season without any issues. Alek Manoah was a runner up two years ago and a complete disaster last year. At +20000 throwing $20 on him isn’t the worst idea in case he can replicate his success from two years ago. 

Castillo is my favorite to win the award. The others I’d consider are Eovaldi, Stroman, and Verlander. 

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