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Luka is a special player. Sometimes I like to start articles with obvious statements like that – Kawhi should’ve joined LeBron, Draymond Green is one of the most overrated players – you know, obvious statements. In a playoff series, the stars tend to shine, and by the end of this series, I expect it to be settled because one of those two stars shines brighter than the other. But, tonight, I expect a different star to take the main stage. More on that later.
For now, let’s focus on the game as whole. The Mavericks took home court advantage away from the Clippers, but will they be able to steal the series? The opening line for this game was -6.5 for the Clippers and has bounced between 6 and 6.5 where it sits now. I’m planning to wait and see if it moves lower so I can get the best number, but I’m happy to take this at -6.5. Coming off a win, Dallas covers the spread 47% of the time. While the Clippers off a loss cover 56% of the time. I’m happy to take the Clippers at a reasonable, one-unit bet.
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering you a chance to bet $10 on Clippers vs. Mavericks matchup and get $100 in site credit. Users just need to bet on the moneyline market of either team of $10+ and they get their site credit of $100 the next day, whether their team wins or loses. I say take the Clippers, but either way, you win!
An area that I’m looking to place a much higher amount is the Clippers 1st quarter spread. Currently available at -1.5 for -118, the Clippers are only a .500 team in the first quarter ATS, and one game below at home this season. But, guess who is the worst team in the NBA against the spread in the first quarter? That’s right, Dallas. Give me Clippers -1.5 for three units.
The next spot I’m looking is towards player props. Paul George is not someone that most would recommend betting on in the playoffs. Playoff P gets a lot of crap that he probably doesn’t deserve. After all, when he was with the Pacers, he challenged the Heat more than most teams in the conference. I’m going to put a half unit on each of these props tonight – him hitting over 3.5 three-pointers +118, and him to outscore Kawhi at +130. Obviously, these are both plus money, and the favorite is on the opposite side of them. The Mavs give up roughly 37% of opponents points to the three ball, and George has the capability of getting hot from three. He averaged 3.2 made three-pointers this season and attempted 7.7. In his last four games, he’s shot 8, 13, 9, and 9 attempts. I think both of these bets go together. George gets hot, hits four or more from deep, and outscores Kawhi in the process.