Bets For Both Thursday Games From An NBA Gambling Sicko
After a brutal stretch betting on the NBA, I got off the mat Wednesday. My written and podcast bets went 4-1 and my bankroll grew by 3.0 units (u). Entering Thursday, my NBA record is 19-17 but my bankroll is -1.1u still.
For reasons unbeknownst to me, the NBA only schedule two games Thursday. Perhaps the Association is afraid to go against the NFL's Thursday Night Football game. Or maybe this is another effort to load manage like Election Day. Regardless, since I'm an NBA betting degen, I've found two ...
NBA Thursday Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (+3), 7 p.m. ET tip-off
Both teams are on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Indiana trampled the Utah Jazz 134-118 at home Wednesday as -6 favorites, which is a game I cashed on. Milwaukee eked past the Detroit Pistons 120-118 thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo getting ejected for a bogus 2nd technical foul.
Giannis will be back and Bucks All-Star Khris Middleton is "probable" to play yet Milwaukee is only -3 favorites in Indiana Thursday. Last season, the Bucks were -9.1 favorites on average in their four games vs. the Pacers.
Milwaukee was 3-1 straight up (SU) and 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in those meetings. The Bucks acquired 7-time All-Star Damian Lillard this offseason, making Milwaukee preseason favorites to win the NBA championship.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS JUMP TO NBA TITLE FAVORITES AFTER DAMIAN LILLARD TRADE
So, one could argue this is a buy-low spot for the Bucks. But, I'm cooler on Milwaukee relatively speaking compared to the market. The Bucks needed a point guard to get Giannis easier looks and that's not what Lillard does. Dame is a score-1st PG that's focused on "getting his".
Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo speaks with Damian Lillard vs. the Detroit Pistons at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Also, I like how Indiana matches up with Milwaukee. The Pacers lead the NBA in wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on both ends of the floor. The 3-point shot is the most important thing in the NBA nowadays and Indiana averages +5.0 made 3-pointers per game vs. its opponent this season.
Furthermore, the Pacers like to push the pace. They score the 2nd-most fastbreak points per game (PPG) and the Bucks allow the 2nd-most fastbreak PPG in the NBA. Milwaukee plays at the 6th-fastest pace but those aren't "good looks".
Finally, the sharp money in the NBA betting market sees Indiana's edges in this matchup. According to Pregame.com, more cash is on the Pacers while more bets are on the Bucks. Indiana's spread has fallen from +3.5 to +3 and public money doesn't move lines in the NBA.
My prediction: Pacers 124, Bucks 120
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic at Mexico City Arena, 9:30 p.m. ET
I don't have a bet on the side or total here. If pressed, I'd take the Under 231 because the assigned officiating crew for this game has a combined 4-10 Over/Under record this season. However, I'm willing to put a 0.5u on OVER 4.5 assists for Magic PF Paolo Banchero (-140).
Last season, Banchero averaged 5.0 assists in his four meetings with the Hawks and threw at least 5 assists in three of those games. This season, Banchero has at least 5 assists in five of Orlando's seven games.
Magic PF Paolo Banchero throws a jump-pass vs. the Atlanta Hawks at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
Plus, Banchero has the highest usage rate on the Magic and he is their "point-forward". According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Banchero's 27.1% assist rate is in the 100% of all NBA forwards. His assist-to-usage ratio is in the 94%, per CTG.
Finally, the Hawks give up the most assists per game to opposing power forwards (5.5) and Pinnacle Sportsbook lists Banchero's assist prop at -150. This is significant because Pinnacle is the sharpest shop in town and books the largest sports bets in the world.