Bet the Board: Do Not Fall For the Hoosier Hysteria

Stagnation is never good…yet that’s the only word to use for our top eight teams in the country, with all maintaining status quo. However, there was upheaval at the bottom of the Top 10, as BYU and Wisconsin saw themselves out after being upset as double-digit favorites on Saturday.  Texas A&M has impressed us once again and now hops into the 9th spot after going into Auburn and staving off a loss to the Tigers.  Iowa State finds themselves in the Top 10 as they bucked all of the professional money against them and steamrolled West Virginia 42-6.

A team that is familiar with our overrated section, the Hoosiers, are off of a double-digit victory against Wisconsin, but we’ll tell you in a bit why you should proceed with caution when it comes to IU football.  For the third time this season, we share why the Tar Heels continue to be overlooked, both nationally and in the betting markets.  It has become rinse and repeat with Mack Brown’s team and the national disrespect they've been shown this season. 

Bet the Board Top 10 Week 15:

1.) Alabama
2.) Clemson
3.) Ohio State
4.) Notre Dame
5.) Florida
6.) Oklahoma
7.) Georgia
8.) Cincinnati
9.) Texas A&M
10.) Iowa State

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Since they compete over everything,

Overrated:  Indiana

Despite the loss of QB Michael Penix Jr., the Hoosiers shocked the college football world by upsetting Wisconsin as 13-point underdogs Saturday, vaulting them to the No. 8 spot in the AP Poll.  Now, we HAVE to mention we had them as our most underrated team entering the season, but their current ranking is grossly exaggerated.  Indiana is a net 0.00 yards per play this year and has actually been OUT-GAINED on the season.  The offense looked really poor against Wisconsin, and despite the victory, they found themselves with a net -130 yardage differential.  They averaged only 2.8 yards per rush. However, winning the turnover battle spurred them to victory.  We still find the loss of Penix Jr. to be significant, and though the win column grows, we’re certainly not seeing any value in Indiana.  We love Tom Allen and the fight this Hoosier team carries with it, week in and week out, but we don’t even have them in our Top 20, let alone at No. 8.  

Underrated: North Carolina

It’s understandable if you are tired of seeing North Carolina in our underrated section. They've been there twice in the last three weeks. But we just can’t help ourselves.  While it’s clear Mack Brown might not be the best Xs and Os coach, which leaves UNC vulnerable in-game, it’s hard to ignore the firepower the Tar Heels possess.  At ninth in offensive success rate and No. 1 in explosive offense, UNC is very efficient down-to-down and can also beat you quickly.  In 2020, when offense correlates to wins at 4x the rate that defense does, you quickly see why a three-loss team is underrated in our book.  While the Tar Heels are 20th according to the AP Poll, Bet the Board has North Carolina nipping at the heels of Iowa State for inclusion in our Top 10. 

Best Bet: NORTH CAROLINA +3.5 (-110)

Manny Diaz didn’t sound overly confident during his weekly presser, as I’m sure he saw on film what we just discussed regarding North Carolina’s offense.  The Hurricanes defense has been good, but it’s not to the level of previous iterations under Diaz.  There are also question marks about the caliber of the offenses Miami has faced this season.  If you take Clemson out of the equation, the average efficiency rank of every opposing offense that Miami has played this season is 62nd.  Despite that, Miami has struggled to stop the run. They currently sit 71st in rushing success rate defense and 57th in explosive run defense.  That is where the Tar Heels offense feasts, boasting the most explosive run game in the country.  Miami has enough firepower to score plenty, but we’ll take the best unit on the field Saturday +3.5 in a game that should be lined closer to PICK’em.  Expect this number to trend below the key number as game day approaches.