The No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (3-1, 0-1 in Big XII) try to bounce back from a loss in their conference play opener when they visit the TCU Horned Frogs (3-0, 0-0 in Big XII) at Amon G. Carter Stadium Saturday.
Oklahoma lost 41-34 at home last week as 13.5-point favorites to the No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats. The Sooners were demolished on the ground, allowing 220 yards to the Wildcats on 34 carries with four rushing TDs.
TCU took care of business at the SMU Mustangs Saturday with a 42-34 win as 2.5-point road favorites. The Horned Frogs outgained SMU by 2 yards per play (7.5-5.5) and TCU senior QB Max Duggan completed 75.9% of his passes for 278 yards and 3 TDs.
Both programs have first-year head coaches with Brett Venables replacing Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. Sonny Dykes succeeded Gary Patterson and interim head Jerry Kill at TCU. Oklahoma has won nine straight vs. TCU and the Sooners have covered in six of those wins.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Too many points for TCU
The only pro-Oklahoma argument for it winning ATS is "it's Oklahoma". These teams are neck-and-neck in net expected points added (EPA) and net success rate.
TCU has played a soft schedule but Oklahoma didn't play anyone tough and lost in its Big XII opener. Also, TCU has more continuity.
The Horned Frogs have the ninth-most returning production, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. Whereas the Sooners rank 71st in returning production.
TCU has the edge at quarterback as well. Duggan leads the Big XII in passer efficiency rating, yards per attempt and has a better EPA than Oklahoma junior transfer QB Dillon Gabriel.
This is a bad spot for Oklahoma who is 4-8 ATS as 6-point or greater home favorites vs. conference foes with a -4.33 ATS margin since 2018.
Finally, all the money is coming in on Oklahoma so the sportsbooks will "need" TCU to at least cover here. Per VSIN, more than 90% of the money at the time of publishing is on Oklahoma ATS. Simply put, nine out of 10 sports gamblers don't beat the House.