Bet On A Dog For The Hot Dog Contest

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, 12:00 ET

"On the 4th of July, the whole sky would brighten up with fireworks, giving us just enough light for a game. We played our best then because, I guess, we all felt like the big leaguers under the lights of some great stadium." That line is from one of the best sports movies of all time, The Sandlot. If you haven't seen it, well, "You're Killin' Me, Smalls." But, you won't get that reference either. There are certain traditions we all love about the 4th of July. Baseball under the fireworks is one of the things that these kids loved. One of the things that I love is the hot dog eating contest. It is stupid, fun, and you can bet on it. What could be better? 

The big story this year is that the dominant Joey "Jaws" Chestnut will not be competing this year. Chestnut pounded down 62 dogs last year so there will be now room for others to take advantage of the crown and grab the win. The reason Chestnut is kind of dumb, but he apparently took a sponsorship from a supposed rival of Nathan's. Over the past few years, he was worth watching just to see how many hot dogs he ate. One of my favorite stories is that I thought I lost a bet on the number of hot dogs he would eat. The interesting part was that he ate so quickly, the tracker missed an entire plate which made my loser of an over bet turn into a winner. Now that he is out of it, we have a different reason for watching. The field is a little more open and we don't have the winner predetermined. Who should we bet on? 

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 04: Competitive eating champion Joey "Jaws" Chestnut wins the 2021 Nathan's Famous 4th Of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest with 76 hot dogs, breaking his personal best record of 75 at Coney Island on July 4, 2021 in New York City.  The first Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest dates back to 1916, the year Nathan's Famous opened on Surf Avenue in Coney Island. (Photo by David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

The favorite this year is a guy by the name of Geoffrey Esper. You can find him anywhere between +100 and +120. Last year, he came in second place, so it does reason that without Chestnut around, he should be able to take home the trophy. Last year, he ate 49 hot dogs. This year, he comes in with a total of 50.5 hot dogs. I think it is reasonable to expect that he can hit 50 and probably get to 52 or 53. It shouldn't be terribly humid and it could be reasonable weather with it only getting to a high of 82 degrees. That is a good temperature for the competitors. I really like the over on his total and will take a full unit on the over. 

James Webb is the second favorite in the contest and he was hot on Esper's tail last year. He was able to to take down 47 glizzies in the competition last year and now can make a move for the most in the contest. Once again the books expect him to once again fall just short of what Esper has. This year they have a total of 48.5 hot dogs. For a lot of the same reasons that I mentioned for Esper, I think Webb makes a move and finds a way to get over the total. I could see him winning the contest outright. A lot of people don't seem to agree with this as we are able to go over 48.5 at +110. Perhaps it is better to just bet on him to win at +200. They are very different bets, so you could do both, but I'd recommend just choosing one side or the other. I like the over better than him to win, personally. 

The last one that might be worth talking about is Nick Wehry. If there is anyone who should be used to hot dog eating it is Wehry. His wife is Miki Sudo, who is a -1600 favorite to win the Women's side of the contest. While Esper was second and Webb third last year, Wehry was fourth. Last year he was four behind Esper and ended with 45. Like everyone else, he only had a month or two to know that Chestnut wasn't going to be in the contest, but that has to provide some motivation that there is a great chance to win. Wehry apparently owns the record for most hot dogs eaten in three minutes. This is about speed and stamina though. There is no reason to think he can't improve on last year's performance, at 45.5. He also has a matchup option against his wife. Sudo finished only 39.5 last year. I think that Wehry is going to find a way to cover the -5.5 spread against his wife. 

This isn't scientific, and it really isn't something I spend a ton of money on, but I love the contest. I hope you all enjoy it as well, but most of all, I hope you have a happy, and safe, 4th of July.

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