BET: Colts In Week 6 'Revenge Spot' Vs. Jaguars
It feels like the wrong team is favored when the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1) Sunday in Week 6 at the Lucas Oil Stadium.
After all, the Jaguars waxed the Colts 24-0 earlier this season in Jacksonville, and Indy's advanced metrics are terrible. But, that's what the sportsbooks want you to think.
However, the Jaguars are a "sucker bet" in this game. Most people are aware Jacksonville is a glue factory for the Colts and ignore how poorly the Jaguars perform in Indy.
Head to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-135) on the moneyline (ML). For the record, I'd play Indy's ML up to -150 before laying up to -3.5 (-110) with the Colts.
Betting Details (PointsBet)
Indy's 'strength-on-weakness' edge
The Jaguars cannot run the ball and rushing defense is about the only thing the Colts have done well this season. Jacksonville only gained 96 rushing yards on 37 carries vs. Indy in Week 2.
Also, Jacksonville's offense is 26th in rushing expected points added per play (EPA/play) and Indianapolis' defense ranks fourth in rushing EPA/play.
Furthermore, I'll take my chances with Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence beating the Colts through the air. He's been abysmal recently.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
Lawrence has committed seven turnovers in the past two weeks (3 INTs and 4 fumbles lost) with a 51.4% completion rate and 64.0 QB Rating.
Fading the Jaguars
Jacksonville ranks seventh in adjusted overall efficiency per Football Outsiders. Yet when you dig a little deeper into the Jaguars, they become less impressive.
They lost to a bad Washington Commanders team in Week 1. Then they crushed the Colts 24-0 the following week but Indy was without WR Michael Pittman.
Jacksonville won a second-straight game over the Los Angeles Chargers, 38-10. However, L.A. was banged up and Chargers QB Justin Herbert had fractured ribs.
The Jaguars have lost back-to-back games including a loss at the Philadelphia Eagles where they puked all over themselves and a no-show vs. the Houston Texans last week in Jacksonville.
The bottom line here is the Jaguars are getting too much love for a couple of lopsided wins and will come back down to earth.
Colts on extended rest
Indy beat the Denver Broncos 12-9 on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 and has extra prep time for this divisional matchup.
The Colts are 4-0 straight up (SU) and 3-0-1 ATS following a bye since 2018 (Indy head coach Frank Reich's first year on the job). Indianapolis has a +10.0 margin of victory (MoV) in those games.
Indianapolis' momentum-building win
Sure, Indy's 12-9 victory vs. Denver last week was one of the ugliest wins in the NFL this season. But, a win is a win and the betting market still has faith Indianapolis can win this division.
The Colts are right behind the Tennessee Titans (+160) to win the AFC South at +180. And for as bad as Indy QB Matt Ryan has looked, what quarterback in the AFC South would you take over Ryan?
Indianapolis QB Matt Ryan (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Finally, Indianapolis is 4-0 SU vs. Jacksonville at home since 2018 with a +10.8 MoV. Say what you will about Indianapolis' performance thus far, but a win Sunday and the Colts are back on track to win a weak division.