Beer, Blood, Bankrolls: A UFC 327 Betting Manifesto

The Octagon returns to Miami’s Kaseya Center Saturday for an electrifying UFC 327, and Fight Night is basically my favorite thing ever. It's an excuse (not that I need one) to get a six-pack, order pizza, and gamble (responsibly) on some gladiator sh*t. The main card starts at 9:00 p.m. ET and is headlined by Jiří Procházka facing Carlos Ulberg for the UFC Light Heavyweight strap. 

Before we go any further, let me be clear: I'm as casual a UFC fan as there is. I researched UFC 327's main card, and more importantly, bet money on the picks I've given below. But I'd be lying if I said this was anything besides gambling just to make UFC Fight Night a little more exciting. With that out of the way, here are my best bets for the Octagon Saturday. 

UFC 327 Main Card Bet Slip

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of 12:30 p.m. ET Saturday, April 11. 

UFC Light Heavyweight Vacant Title Fight: Jiří Procházka (-108) vs. Carlos Ulberg 

The current UFC Light Heavyweight, Alex Pereira, is vacating his belt to fight for the interim heavyweight title. Procházka has longer arm and leg reach, with more knockout power and more experience, even though he is younger. 

This is Procházka's seventh consecutive UFC pay-per-view and Ulberg's first since 2023. Procházka has 28 knockouts in 32 wins, including back-to-back knockouts and "Performance of the Nights" in UFC 311 and 320 in his last two fights. His only two losses in the UFC were in title fights against Pereira, who is an all-time legend. 

Ulberg, on the other hand, has just eight knockouts in 13 career wins. Two of his previous three wins were by decision. One of them was against Volkan Oezdemir, whom Procházka knocked out in 2020. 

Lastly, early money pushed Procházka from a +115 ‘dog on the opener to a slight -115 favorite at BetMGM. We'll see whether it’s sharp or not. Regardless, Procházka has the better resume and will win the striking battle. 

BET 1.08 units (u) on Jiří Procházka's moneyline (-108) at DraftKings

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Light Heavyweight Bout: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa 

Only three of Murzakanov's 16 wins have been by decision. But styles make fights, and six of Costa's last seven fights have been decided by the judges, including six straight. Two of those were five-round main event fights, and his last four opponents were "strikers". Costa is moving up in weight, which usually improves a fighter's endurance because cutting weight is draining. 

Also, neither has good takedown accuracy, so I'm not expecting to see ground-and-pound or submission attempts. Albeit, standing up and trading blows could certainly lead to a knockout. Yet, Murzakanov is undefeated, and Costa has only been knocked out once and has never tapped. 

BET 1.05u on "Yes, Fight To Go The Distance" (-105) 

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Heavyweight Fight: Curtis Blaydes (-108) vs. Josh Hokit

The market is backing Hokit, betting him from a +120 ‘dog on the opener at BetMGM, down to a slight -112 favorite at the time of writing. I’m assuming it's because he's 8-0. Hokit has first-round knockouts in his first two UFC fights and has been the "busier" fighter with three fights since Blaydes' last match. Plus, the public loves betting on underdogs in combat sports. 

However, Blaydes has more Octagon experience, weighs around 23 pounds more, has 6.5 more inches of arm reach, and 3.0 more inches of leg reach. He beat the current UFC heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, in 2022, but Blaydes lost in their rematch, a heavyweight title fight, at UFC 304. That said, give me Blaydes at a better price to fade the market. 

BET 0.54u on Curtis Blaydes' moneyline (-108)

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Light Heavyweight Bout: Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker 

This fight is a heavy favorite (-550) to be finished before going to the judges, so give me the Reyes since he is a better striker with more big-fight experience. Nine of Reyes' last 10 fights have ended with knockouts, including seven straight, and Walker's last three fights have ended in knockouts. 

Dominick Reyes faces Johnny Walker at UFC 327 Saturday in the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. (Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)

Reyes lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute. He has faced some of the best fighters in the sport, such as the two guys in the main event, Procházka and Ulberg, the GOAT, Jon Jones, and has fought in two title fights. Whereas Walker has never been in a UFC title fight and has fought on a pay-per-view since 2023.

BET 0.53u on Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO/DQ (-105) 

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Featherweight Fight: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr 

I don't have much "sharp analysis" for this, but because these guys are both veterans, they will kick off UFC 327's main card with a bang. Swanson (30-14) is 42 years old, and Landwehr (18-7) is 37. And while getting another title shot is unlikely, they can continue to make "main card money" and win fight bonuses by just putting on a good show. 

Furthermore, Swanson hasn't been in the Octagon since 2024, and his last two bouts won "Fight of the Night" on their cards, with him knocking his opponent out in the most recent match. Five of Landwehr's last seven fights have ended by knockout or submission, including three consecutive knockout finishes. 

BET 0.65u on "No, Fight To Go The Distance" (-130) 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.