Chargers Vs. Chiefs In Brazil: Why Los Angeles Is the Value Play in NFL Week 1

For a second straight season, there's a game at the Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil, on the Friday after the NFL Kickoff Game. Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Green Bay Packers 34-29. This year, it's the Kansas City Chiefs squaring off with the Los Angeles Chargers. 

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Both teams ended last season with a stinker. Albeit KC was going for a Super Bowl threepeat and lost to Philly 40-22, while LAC got their doors blown off by the Houston Texans 32-12 in a 2025 AFC Wild Card Game. It was Chargers QB Justin Herbert's second brutal playoff loss, and his first under head coach Jim Harbaugh. 

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But I'm buying a little more stock in the Herbert-Harbaugh team because they are a top-five quarterback-coach combo in the NFL. I'd put them behind Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and head coach John Harbaugh, Rams QB Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 24 

The NFL media trashes LAC's roster, but if you squint, it's not that bad. In fact, the Chargers are as good on paper, if not better, than the Chiefs. LAC brought back cagey vet WR Keenan Allen this season, second-year WR Ladd McConkey was nasty as a rookie, and I trust that Harbaugh drafting rookie RB Omarion Hampton in the first round will pay off. 

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and WR Keenan Allen celebrating a touchdown at SoFi Stadium in California. (Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images)

The Allen signing didn't make headlines since he signed late in the offseason (Aug. 5) after a down year with the Chicago Bears last season. However, I'm excusing that because it was a terrible situation for everyone, and the Bears overhauled their coaching staff. As long as he's healthy, Allen will get open a lot for Herbert, which will open up the offense. 

Ultimately, this spread is mispriced. The Chiefs were -4.5 favorites over the Chargers in Kansas City in Week 14 last year. I give KC a 2.5-point boost for home-field advantage, and they are playing on a neutral field in Brazil Friday. Lastly, LAC improved on paper more this offseason, so I make the Chiefs only -2 here, and the "Chargers +3" is obviously a key number. 

Best Bet: Chargers +3 (+100) and +140 moneyline at BetMGM

• For what it's worth, I'd bet one unit on LAC +3 and a half-unit on their moneyline.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.