Padres Or Cubs: Who’s the Best Bet For Game 1 Of 2025 NL Wild Card Series?

The Chicago Cubs (92-70) host the San Diego Padres (90-72) at Wrigley Field Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET for Game 1 of their best-of-three 2025 NL Wild Card Series. All three games will be played in the Windy City, if necessary. They split the season series 3-3, and both scored 25 runs in those games. 

Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) gets the ball for Game 1, while San Diego sends RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. Boyd was 1-1 in two starts vs. the Padres this season with 2 ER allowed over 11.1 innings pitched (IP). Pivetta went 1-1 in two starts against the Cubs, surrendering 4 ER over 9.0 IP. 

Series Odds (DraftKings) 

Winner 

• Chicago Cubs (-125)
• San Diego Padres (+105)

Series Handicap 

• CHC -1.5 (+250)
• San Diego +1.5 (-330)
• Cubs +1.5 (-360)
• Padres -1.5 (+280)

Game 1 Odds

I love this price for San Diego because it has an edge in the starting pitching matchup, the best bullpen in baseball, and has a hotter and deeper lineup. The Cubs were 30 games above .500 against teams with losing records this season, but were eight games below .500 vs. winning teams. 

This season, the Padres are 5-1 in Pivetta's road starts as an underdog. Albeit that one loss was 7-1 to the Cubs in April. Regardless, according to FanGraphs, Pivetta is tied for 59th among MLB starters in Stuff+, and Boyd is tied for 118th.

San Diego Padres RHP Nick Pivetta starts Game 1 against the Chicago Cubs Tuesday in the 2025 NL Wild Card Series. (Photo credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, relief pitching is crucial for playoff baseball, and San Diego's bullpen has the best ERA and third-best WAR since the MLB All-Star Game. The Padres have three relievers in the top 20 of FanGraphs' power rankings: Closer Robert Suarez (third) and setup man Mason Miller (fifth), and middle reliever Jeremiah Estrada (19th).  

Also, San Diego's lineup has been one of the best in baseball post-All-Star break. The Padres rank 10th or better in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA, per FanGraphs. The Cubs are in the middle of the pack in those three metrics over that span. Lastly, San Diego's fourth postseason appearance in the last six years, whereas the Cubs haven't made the playoffs since 2020. 

Best Bet: San Diego Padres -102 moneyline, up to -115. 

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