College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Best Bets From Analyst With A 69% Win Rate

We are down to the final eight teams of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, which should've been the size of the field the whole time rather than this 12-team nonsense, because there aren't 12 teams that can win the national title. Either way, I'm not here to fix the CFP. I'm here to make money from it. Plus, any football is good football since we can bet on this stuff. 

Speaking of which, this has been the best college football betting season of my life. Heading into the quarterfinals of the CFP, I'm 20-9 this season with a +29.8% return on investment. Not bad considering I'm a "casual" college football fan, at best. That said, fade or follow my looks for the CFP quarterfinals at your peril. 

2025-26 College Football Playoff Quarterfinals: Best Bets 

• Miami Hurricanes +9.5 (-110), down to +8.5, vs. Ohio State Buckeyes via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Texas Tech Red Raiders +2.5 (-105), down to Pick 'Em, vs. Oregon Ducks via BetMGM, risking 1.06u.
• Indiana Hoosiers -7 (-105), up to 8, vs. Alabama Crimson Tide via BetMGM, risking 1.05u.
• Ole Miss Rebels +6.5 (-110), down to +5, vs. Georgia Bulldogs via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Cotton Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (+9.5) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State’s best win in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings came against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the 17th-ranked team. The Buckeyes also beat Texas and Michigan, but all three opponents fell well short of preseason expectations.

Penn State finished 6–6, and Ohio State beat the Nittany Lions after James Franklin was fired. Texas QB Arch Manning opened the year as the Heisman betting favorite but didn’t end up a finalist. And Michigan’s issues are well-known.

Miami’s top wins are more impressive: Notre Dame in the season opener and Texas A&M in the first round of the College Football Playoff (CFP). Connelly ranks Notre Dame seventh nationally, and many believe the Fighting Irish belonged in the 12-team CFP. Texas A&M is ranked 11th.

Miami Hurricanes RB Mark Fletcher Jr. carries the ball vs. the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field in the first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff. (Photo credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

On paper, the Buckeyes don’t have a massive talent edge, and Miami is one of the few teams built to compete with Ohio State up front. The Hurricanes’ defense is seventh nationally in yards per rush allowed (2.9), and Ohio State’s run game has repeatedly been bottled up.

Texas limited the Buckeyes to 77 rushing yards (2.3 yards per carry), Illinois to 106 (2.9 yards per carry), Wisconsin to 98 (3.5 yards per carry), and Indiana to 58 (2.2 yards per carry). Outside of Illinois, those defenses all rank in the top 20 in yards per rush allowed.

Finally, Ohio State’s offensive line is excellent, but Miami counters with a strong pass rush led by EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., a likely top-10 NFL draft pick. If the Hurricanes can create obvious passing downs, they’ll have chances for drive-killing, game-changing sacks.

Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2.5)

It would be a mistake to dismiss Texas Tech's resume because it played in the weak-a** Big XII. Besides their 26-22 loss to Arizona State, the Red Raiders waxed everyone they played this season, including the 12-win BYU Cougars twice, and the 10-win Utah Utes. Smarter football analysts than I say that blowing teams out is a bigger indicator of a good team than winning close games. 

Texas Tech's defense ranks second nationally in points per game and yards per play. Per Pro Football Focus, the Red Raiders have the first and second-best edge rushers, David Bailey and Romello Height, in the country, and the top-graded linebacker and 2025 Heisman finalist, Jacob Rodriguez. I'm literally betting that Texas Tech's defense is better than Oregon's offense. 

The Ducks bully weaker teams and struggle vs. tough competition under head coach Dan Lanning. Oregon is 3-3 straight up (SU) and 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in games at neutral sites since hiring Lanning in 2023. This includes a non-cover in a win over James Madison in the first round of this CFP and a 20-point blowout loss to Ohio State in the CFP last season. 

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-7)

Alabama's offense is too one-dimensional for this matchup. The Crimson Tide averages just 3.2 yards per carry, and Indiana's defense is 12th nationally in yards per rush allowed at 3.1. Meaning, ‘Bama is going to be in a lot of third-and-longs, which is a nightmare considering its offensive sack rate is 79th in the country, and the Hoosiers are 13th in sack rate on defense. 

Furthermore, the Crimson Tide had poor down-to-down efficiency in their win over the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of the CFP. Alabama converted just 10 non-penalty first downs and gained only 4.8 yards per play. If it weren't for explosive plays and short fields, the Crimson Tide's offense would've sucked against Oklahoma. 

Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza throwing under pressure vs. the Ohio State Buckeyes during the 2025 Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Photo credit: Grace Smith/IndyStar-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Indiana has passed every test it's taken, with wins against the Oregon Ducks on the road and Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman, and Indiana has three running backs averaging at least 5.2 yards per carry. Hence, the only way 'Bama keeps this within a touchdown is if the Hoosiers play their worst game of the season. 

Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels (+6.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia got a lucky cover as -7.5 home favorites in a 43-35 home win vs. Ole Miss in Week 8. The Rebels held a 35-26 lead after three quarters, then the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Also, Ole Miss’s spread has gone from +6.5 on the opener at Pinnacle Sportsbook to +6 as of Tuesday afternoon, which has to be sharp line movement for a few reasons. 

First, Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker whose line movement the bigger sportsbooks usually copy, such as DraftKings and FanDuel. Second, the Rebels have an interim head coach running things because Lane Kiffin took the LSU job. Third, Georgia has a top-three football program in the country, so the public isn't betting Ole Miss down given its situation. 

Ultimately, it's just too easy to fade the Rebels due to Kiffin's departure when, in reality, they have a better statistical profile than the Bulldogs. Of course, Kiffin leaving sucks for Ole Miss long-term, but it still matches up well with Georgia and that's all that matters for this game. 

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