2025 NBA Playoffs: Best Bet For Golden State Warriors At Houston Rockets Game 5

The Houston Rockets (1-3) are in a "must-win" when they host the Golden State Warriors (3-1) Wednesday in Game 5 of the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs at the Toyota Center at 7:30 p.m. ET. Golden State put Houston on the brink of elimination with a 109-106 win at home Monday. 

After missing Game 3, Warriors All-Star Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 27 points on 58.3% shooting and was 12 for 12 from the foul line Monday. NBA Defensive Player of the Year finalist, Draymond Green, made a key stop on Rockets big Alperen Şengün at the end of regulation in Game 4 to secure the victory. 

Despite Golden State's 3-1 lead, this series has been tight. These teams are splitting the "four factors" and the Dubs have a +2.2 scoring margin (100.5-98.3). The Rockets won three of the four factors in their loss Monday. Houston's starters are averaging double figures, while the Warriors only have three dudes scoring 10+ points per game (minimum of one series game played). 

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Game 5 odds 

BetMGM's John Ewing posted on X that 43% of the bets and 31% of the money were on Golden State as of early Wednesday afternoon. Yet, the Rockets have gone from -2.5 on the opener up to -4.5 (-105) at the time of writing. I ignore betting splits during the regular season, but I consider them more in the playoffs because there is more "public money" in the market. 

The Warriors got 26 points from SG Brandin Podziemski in Game 4 on 54.5% shooting from 3-point range (6-for-11). They can't rely on that kind of production from Podziemski Wednesday. Will Golden State get it? Maybe. But, Podz is averaging 7.0 points on 27.8% shooting in Houston in the first two games of this series and went scoreless in Game 2. 

Finally, the Rockets are scoring 13.0 more paint points per game (46.5-33.5) and averaging more than 10 rebounds per game (47.8-37.0) in this series. I.e., Houston has more size, and teams typically shoot better at home. Şengün is scoring a team-best 22.3 points per game in this series. If he keeps that up, the Rockets will get great looks from behind the arc Wednesday. 

Prediction: Rockets 105, Warriors 98

• For the record, I'm risking 1.65 units (u) via FanDuel on Houston -4 (-110) to profit 1.5u. Even though I cited BetMGM's data above, the most important thing in sports betting is to find the best odds for your pick. Also, I'm willing to bet the Rockets up to -4.5.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.