Bello, Boston Will Beat Down Detroit

Tigers vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET

Ugly is about the only way you can call the past week or so. I was feeling great about this baseball season, up around 25 games over the .500 mark, but last week was brutal. It seemed like every read I had was either off or I played the wrong part of my analysis (for example I would play a moneyline and say the game would go over, but I'd only be the monelline, which would lose). Sunday marks the start of a new week - at least that's what the calendars tell us, so here I am looking to turn the tides and get back on track as the Tigers take on the Red Sox.

Detroit has put together a respectable campaign to this point in the year, and there really isn't much reason to think they will struggle from here. Although they are a sub-.500 team right now, they have one of the better pitching staffs in the American League and could turn things around if they add a bat or two at the trade deadline. They aren't dead in the water for the AL Central, but it will be a fairly tough battle. My guess is that it will be hard to overcome the Guardians, Royals, and Twins, all of whom are currently in front of the Tigers. However, a nice run in June could position themselves to become a buyer at the trade deadline. Today they take on a similarly performing Red Sox squad and ask Casey Mize to navigate their lineup. Mize, in his return year from time off due to injury, is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. None of those numbers are great, but I don't think he's struggling either. Most of it is the result of a couple of bad starts last month. He allowed 11 earned runs in two games to the Royals and Yankees and lasted just seven innings combined in those two outings. He has given up a home run ball in each of the five starts he made in May, but only allowed one in his first five starts of the season. Only Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have faced Mize before and they are just 1-for-7 combined. 

ST LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 24: Casey Mize #12 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on August 24, 2021 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images)

The Red Sox were looking, at least to me, like they were destined for a down year. During the offseason, they didn't have any impressive signings, they let Chris Sale walk away (not that he did much in his time with Boston), and the rest of the AL East was getting better. However, 60 games into the Major League season and they sit a game above .500. I still don't think this club is necessarily a playoff caliber roster, but if they get hot you never know. The offense has been about league average or better in most categories. The pitching staff also sports one of the lower ERAs in the game. Coming into today, the team has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP which is really nice. They've also taken the last two games from the Tigers and look to take three out of four games with a win today. Brayan Bello looks to secure this last win for the Red Sox and he has been very sharp at home this season, with a 2.87 home ERA. With a 4.18 ERA overall, you can tell he is more comfortable at Fenway than he is on the road. The problem is that he's only made three home starts this season. This will be Bello's tenth start of the season as he missed time between mid-April and mid-May. Although they don't have much experience against him, Tigers hitters have feasted on Bello in the past, going 7-for-20, but only posting two RBIs. 

When you play games between two .500 clubs it can be really hard to judge when the good side of one will play the bad side of the other. However, today I think we have a pretty clear indication that Bello is the better starter than Mize. The Red Sox offense looks pretty strong the past two days, but may struggle a bit to figure out Mize early on so I don't want to take the first five innings. Instead, my play in this game will be the full game run line for the Red Sox at -1.5 and +130. 

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