Some might say you're stepping in it by betting the Chicago Bears (3-6) as home favorites against the Detroit Lions (2-6) at Soldier Field in Week 6. The Bears are 1-5 overall in their last six games and the Lions just upset the Green Bay Packers last weekend.
However, Chicago has been profitable in this spot since last season and I'm always looking to fade Detroit QB Jared Goff outdoors after November. Also, Bears dual-threat QB Justin Fields is a nightmare in the open field and the Lions can't stop the run.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
'Let-down' spot for Detroit
The Lions snapped a five-game losing skid (1-4 ATS) with a 15-9 victory last week vs. the Packers. But, that win was more about Green Bay's issues than anything the Lions did right.
Detroit had 135 fewer total yards and had the ball for nearly 10 fewer minutes. The Lions won the turnover battle with Green Bay 3-1 and Aaron Rodgers threw two INTs in the red zone.
That was the difference in the game. It wasn't an impressive performance from Detroit. Also, the market fell in the love with the Lions last season because of their awesome ATS record.
However, when the market gets too in love with Detroit, the oddsmakers bite back. The Lions were 11-6 ATS in 2021 but just 1-3 ATS (-16.9 ATS margin) as an underdog of +3 or less over that span.
This is a 'good spot' for the Bears
Chicago has bounced back from losses since the beginning of last season and rolls as a home favorite. The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS following a loss (+5.2 ATS margin) and 3-0-1 ATS as home favorites (+6.9 ATS margin) in the last two seasons.
In fact, Chicago beat Detroit 24-14 as 3-point home favorites in Soldier Field last season after a loss in Fields' second career start.
Fade Goff in bad weather
Whether it's the small hands or California upbringing, Goff has always sucked in bad weather. He was 1-4 ATS when the temperature was 40° or lower while playing for coach Sean McVay at the Los Angeles Rams (2017-20) and 1-1 ATS in Detroit.
The weather forecast in Chicago this weekend is predicting temperatures in the mid-30s. Goff is already a below-average QB but these suboptimal weather conditions will put more of an onus on the ground game.
That's where the Bears are going to win this game ...
Chicago's strength-on-weakness edge on the ground
Bears rookie head coach Matt Eberflus is starting to get the most out of Fields and it's showing in Chicago's run game. Over the last four games, the Bears have rushed for at least 237 yards in each contest.
Fields has rushed for 408 yards since Week 6 (8.3 yards per rush) and has 10 total TDs (seven passing and three rushing). Improvement in Chicago's game is the reason the Bears are converting 51.6% of its third-down attempts over that span.
Chicago lost to the Miami Dolphins 35-32 last week but covered as 4-point home underdogs and Fields played the best game of his career. Fields threw a career-high three passing TDs vs. the Dolphins and ran for a career-best 178 yards.
Finally, we are getting to the party a little late in Chicago. The Bears were 1.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line and have been steamed up to the current number. There's still value in Chicago ATS, which is why the sportsbooks keep raising the price.