Penguins vs. Islanders, 7:00 ET
I was wrong yesterday. I mean, like, not even close wrong. Here's the thing I had two bets written down for the game. It was the Flyers vs. Kraken and I took the Flyers to win the game at plus money. I just felt like the line was too high. On the other side the Kraken were -125 to win in 60 minutes. That was my other play and I didn't play it. I just felt like the value and even some reasons aligned for taking the Flyers. I was wrong, and now try to get back on the winning side tonight.
The Penguins are probably my favorite hockey team of all time. I like the logo, the sweaters (jerseys for you non-hockey folk), always liked Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby, but don't like tonight's spot for them. They've played four games since the break and have won three of the games. Three of the four games were fairly easy victories with only one being a one-goal game. This is the fourth game of a road trip for the Penguins but more importantly the Penguins have been on the West Coast for three straight games. Even with a bit of added rest they should be a bit tired tonight. Casey DeSmith is who I assume will take the net tonight. He allows 3.21 goals per game on average. He's allowed three goals in two of the four post-All-Star games. He didn't face the Islanders in their first matchup this season, but I'm not sure it matters, unless DeSmith has a great game, I don't expect the Penguins to pull this one out.
It isn't that the Islanders are playing very well or something. In fact they are on a three game losing streak, but if they want to keep climbing in the standings, they absolutely need this one. They lost to three teams that probably should've been easy wins for the Islanders too. They have been in every game, though. They lost 6-5 in the first one, then lost in overtime, then lost in a shootout. It is like they are on the verge of a victory. I expect them to get the win in this game. They should have Ilya Sorokin in the crease for them and he is top-10 in the league with goals against per game, save percentage, and shutouts for the season. It has only resulted in a 17-17-5 record though. He was in the net the first game against Pittsburgh when New York won 5-1 at home. I think that he can replicate that tonight. They also have the benefit of not having to travel for this one. The spot just makes sense for the Islanders to win.
I'm taking New York in this one at -115. I'd argue that Pittsburgh is probably the better squad overall and I'd take them in a series, but there are a lot of signs that point to this being a better play on the Islanders. New York being +225 on the puck line is really appealing. I might put a sprinkle on that too. I'll definitely take the moneyline though.
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