Back This WNBA Player Prop

Sparks vs. Wings, 4:00 ET

I started my last WNBA article talking about how I lost two plays in a row for the first time. I was pretty confident it was going to end there as I took the Sun to go over 82.5 points against the Chicago Sky. They ended up scoring 17 points in the first quarter. Not exactly ideal for getting over the total, but it wasn't a back-breaker. In the second quarter they put up 28 points, giving them 45 for the game, and putting them on pace to get where we needed in the second half. They ended the game with 82 points. So, now we look for a redemption play after dropping three straight. I've circled a player prop as our next winner in this game between the Sparks and the Wings. 

The Sparks didn't exactly have high hopes to enter the year, but at least they drafted Cameron Brink who they expected to be an impact player. Even when Brink was on the floor she wasn't really a difference maker, but after just a few games under her belt, she tore her ACL and is done for the year. For the season, the Sparks are just 6-23 with only two of those six wins coming on the road. They are allowing opponents to score 85.4 points per game against them and have lost six games in a row. Guards Lexie Brown and Aari McDonald are both on the injured list for today with Brown certainly being out, and McDonald closer to a game-time decision. If the Sparks are going to have a chance in this game, they probably want to slow the pace down a bit and get the ball into their forwards. Dearica Hamby is averaging 17.7 points per game for Los Angeles and Rickea Jackson is at 11.9. Those are the two highest scorers on the club. The rest of the team is averaging under 10 points per game (with the exception of Azura Stevens, who has only played in 9 of their 29 games). 

LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 26: Arike Ogunbowale #24 of the Dallas Wings looks on during the game against the Los Angeles Sparks on May 26, 2024 at the Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Wings, overall, aren't much better than the Sparks, but they should get a win in this one. Will they cover? That's a different question and one that I don't really care about today. They are the healthier team, and they probably have more talent on their roster as well. That usually spells a win and cover, but the problem is that the Wings might want to tank from here for a better WNBA draft pick (same as the Sparks, honestly). The other thing is that the Wings have the worst defense in basketball, allowing opponents to average 90.2 points per game against them this season. That's a lot of points in the WNBA. Part of it has to do with pace, and part of it has to do with them just being bad. It does play well for us though as it should mean plenty of opportunities today for Arike Ogunbowale to go nuts against them. For the season, Ogunbowale is averaging 21.9 points per game. The Wings have played 12 home games this season, and Ogunbowale has scored at least 21 points in 9 of those games. The Sparks may be without their two primary guards to keep up with her. 

You probably already see where I'm going with the play for this game. It is to take Arike Ogunbowale over 20.5 points at -120 on FanDuel. She is the one person on the Wings I find that you can consistently trust. When she gets hot, she scores in bunches. I also like that this game should be close, meaning she will need to be a scorer in it and we shouldn't worry about her sitting in a blowout or anything. She has played the Sparks three times this season and has only gone over this total once, but I think without at least one of their guards, and the Wings at home, this is a safe bet. Back her to get over 20.5 points.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024