Back To The Well With Imanaga Even Against The Braves

Cubs vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

I think at the beginning of the season, I expected both of these teams to be good, but probably not quite this equal at this point in the season. The Braves have lost four fewer games than the Cubs to this point, but they both have 24 wins coming into today. Baseball has been interesting this year as it doesn't seem like any team is head and shoulders above anyone else so far this season. Sure, there are some very good teams, but there seems to be a lot of parity. Eventually, teams will spread away from their competition, but right now even the Cubs and Braves are neck-and-neck. Let's take a look and see how we should bet their series opener. 

If we are being realistic, the Cubs could actually be significantly better. They have had a number of injuries to key players already and they are still finding ways to win games. Chicago made very few moves this offseason, and as a fan, I expected them to take a step back, not a step forward. Their team is only hitting .238, which isn't terrible, but leaves a lot of room for improvement. They have scored 195 runs on the season though, and this shows that they are finding ways to get runs even if they aren't the most consistent hitters. They scored nine runs against the Pirates on Saturday, but six of their runs came from walks when the bases were loaded. Sure, they had 10 hits in the game, but if you take away the walks, they end up scoring just three runs on 10 hits. Baseball can be crazy at times. They are now turning to one of the few offseason pickups they did have, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga has been better than advertised. He wasn't even the highest ranked Asian pitcher in the free agent market, but right now he is the highest ranked starter in the league with a 1.08 ERA. I've asked this before, but is this his true skill, or are teams just not figuring him out yet. If the season ended today, he'd be the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, and hell, he could even be in the running for MVP. He has a 1.08 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. The Cubs are 7-0 in games he has started, and he has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his starts. He has only allowed earned runs in four of the seven outings. 

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 11:  Ronald Acuña Jr. #13 and Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves celebrate their win after the game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Saturday, May 11, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

If anyone can destroy all the good work a pitcher puts into action, it is the Braves. However, the Braves are not the same club they were last season. Last year's team was crushing the ball every turn. This team has fewer runs than the Cubs, but a higher batting average. They have fewer home runs but a higher On-Base and Slugging percentage. They've only score more than four runs in a game twice this month and just twice over the past 13 games. I'd be shocked if that was the case last year as they were murdering the ball. The Braves have also suffered injuries that hurt the squad. Their best pitcher (arguably), Spencer Strider, is out for the year. The big thing to really know about the Braves is that their struggles have really come on the road this season. They are 11-9 on the road, but 13-4 at home this season. Today they send out Reynaldo Lopez to compete with Imanaga. Lopez is putting together a very nice season for himself as well. He has allowed just six earned runs over 35.1 innings of the season. The bigger problem for him has been walks as he has allowed 14, and issued four in his last outing. He has posted a quality start in four of his six starts this year. In a similar dominant fashion, he has allowed more than one earned run in just one start this year. Cubs hitters haven't seen much of Lopez, but they haven't been good in those experiences either, getting just two hits in 14 at-bats. 

This is a game that should be low scoring. The under 3.5 for five innings is at +110. The under for the game (7.5) is at even money. I think both have a realistic possibility of hitting, but the problem is there is not much room for error. With the Braves coming back home they could get their groove back with the offense. I am not going to run scared though. Both of these pitchers have done a great job. I'm taking the full game under 7.5 in this one. I will likely sprinkle on the Cubs money line as well. We won't get a ton of opportunities for Imanaga at plus money if he keeps this up. 

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