Back The Over In Brewers/Cardinals Series Finale

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 4:10 ET

The MLB schedule makers put the final series between the Cardinals and Brewers at the end of the season. I have to assume they expected this to be one of those series that would determine the division. That obviously hasn't been the case as the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in baseball and one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Still, tonight gives us an opportunity to take advantage of a matchup between these two clubs.

St. Louis was the favorite, or maybe second favorite, to win the division at the beginning of the year. They added Willson Contreras to the squad and they had the reigning MVP in the lineup. They even have Nolan Arenado, a perennial MVP candidate, in their lineup. Sure, the pitching staff was going to be a question mark, but the team is almost 20 games under .500. The pitching staff collectively has an ERA of 4.75 and is allowing opponents to bat a whopping .275 against them. One of their better pitchers this season is Dakota Hudson. He has a pretty nice win-loss record, but the reality is that he is not a very consistent pitcher. He has just two quality starts over his past seven outings. Over his past ten starts, he has allowed at least three earned runs in six of the games and five or more runs in three of the starts. He hasn't had to face the Brewers this season, but he has allowed 18 hits over 54 at-bats to rewers hitters. They've also gotten 16 RBIs off of him in that stretch. He has been significantly worse on the road than he has at home with a 6.75 road ERA.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - AUGUST 24: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch in the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on August 24, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Brewers finally clinched the division. This was one of the divisions that was somewhat up for grabs. The AL West is still to be decided, and the AL East is down to two teams, but the NL Central saw every team outside of the Cardinals lead the division at some point in the season. I'm not sure if that is a reflection of the competitiveness of the season or if it shows just how terrible all the teams are. Either way, the Brewers are the squad that won the race. Do they care anymore about these games? I have to think they want to remain sharp as they head into the playoffs, but they will likely rest a few players. Corbin Burnes is probably going to be the first starter for the beginning of the playoffs, so I'm not quite sure how long he will pitch in this game. He's made four starts this September and two of them he allowed four earned runs in both games. The other two, he allowed no earned runs. He actually had a no-hitter through eight innings against the Yankees before he was pulled. Burnes only faced the Cardinals once this season, and he put up a quality start in a loss.

The Brewers have no reason to let Burnes pitch deep into the game aside from any sort of contractual incentive. He's been fairly inconsistent and he's had an increased ERA during home starts. I'm going to take the over in this game. I do think the Brewers could win on the run line, but I think both teams should combine to score more than the 8 runs posted.

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