Back The Dog Early In Orioles Vs Yankees

Orioles vs. Yankees, 7:05 ET

Of all the divisions within baseball, I think that the most interesting this season will be the AL East. It has a little bit of everything - the best team in baseball (Rays), a fun young team that is hungry (Orioles), a high payroll team that is slightly underperforming (Yankees), a team with MVP candidates (Blue Jays), and a team that is stuck behind them all but would compete in most other divisions (Red Sox). Tonight's matchup is between the Orioles and the Yankees.

Do you remember the last time that Baltimore had a really dominant team? They haven't been in the playoffs in six seasons, and have made the playoffs just three times since 1998. The years of futility have seemed to pay off a bit though as they are now in a good position to either take the division or grab a Wild Card spot at the very least. A good young core supporting this squad is making the difference and they are getting just enough pitching to keep the squad going. Kyle Bradish is one of those pitchers that is doing just enough. Bradish has one of the better ERAs for the Orioles and is sporting a 3.58 ERA this season. He has been way better at home than on the road though. On the road, he has a 4.46 ERA, but at home he has a 2.81 ERA. He was hit up for four earned runs over five innings against the Yankees in his only start this season (it was at Yankee Stadium too). Bradish doesn't have a good track record against the Yankees, allowing 18 hits in 48 at-bats. He is in great form right now though with just 21 earned runs allowed over his last 65.1 innings.

Baltimore certainly has a better squad this season, but this might be a great spot to take the Yankees. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

There is almost no situation that I would normally say this, but I do kind of feel bad for the Yankees. I have little to no love for the team from New York, but in this situation, it does kind of stink that they signed a guy like Carlos Rodon - someone I've really enjoyed betting on for a couple of years now - and he hasn't made his debut for them (though that could be coming as early as tomorrow). They don't have former MVP Aaron Judge in the lineup, and they don't have Nestor Cortes now. The injuries are piling up for the Yankees and it stinks. Whether you like them or not, baseball is better when the best players are on the field. Luis Severino is the man on the mound today for the Yankees. Severino has a 6.30 overall ERA, but most of that damage has come on the road. He has allowed just five earned runs at home over 17.2 innings. The other 23 earned runs he has allowed have all come on the road over 22.1 innings. He's been pretty solid against the Orioles, holding them to six hits in 26 at-bats.

I think the best thing to do here is take the Yankees to win the game through five innings. The Orioles have a better bullpen and the splits for each pitcher favor the underdog here. The Orioles need to win this game in order to salvage a series split, and they are clearly the better team, but I think Severino (who is in poor form) could benefit from being at home in this game. I'll take the Yankees through five at +115.

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