Back Starters To Keep Offenses Sidelined

Padres vs. Braves, 4:10 ET

Sunday is usually a day that I reserve for writing about Sunday Night Baseball. Afterall, it typically is the best matchup of the day. Two teams that are probably the best in their divisions, or there is some sort of other intrigue. I won't deny it, the Dodgers taking on the Mets is something really engaging and intriguing to me, but I'm not really excited about the pitching matchup. I'm more impressed about the one we get here tonight between the Padres and the Braves.

The Padres started the season looking like one of the best teams in baseball, but lately they have struggled significantly to get the results they are looking for. I've said before that when the record reaches a certain point in the season, you really don't notice losing streaks quite as much, but the Padres might be testing that theory. The Braves starting 0-7 was eye opening because you saw that number and were shocked. Then for the next month as they tried to get over .500, you could still see the struggle. With the Padres, they were just 10 games over .500, now it is not quite as comfortable and they are looking like the San Diego team that struggled for much of the past few years. Today they get a guy whose numbers are also not looking great with Dylan Cease taking the hill. Cease, who has flashes of being a great pitcher, is just 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has pitched better lately, going 0-1 with a 2.96 ERA in May, and three quality starts under his belt. Cease also has been pretty good at stopping the Braves, holding them to a .226 batting average.

Apr 16, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  San Diego Padres pitcher Dylan Cease (84) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

As bad as this stretch has been for the Padres, the situation is still better than what the Braves have dealt with this year. Getting off to a slow start isn't a death sentence for a team, but it is something that can be tough to dig yourself out of. Basically they gave the Mets and Phillies a head start for the division crown. They gave all other teams in the league a chance to pace the Wild Card race. Since that bad start, they've been one of the better teams in baseball, but they are still just hovering around that .500 mark. Perhaps they will get a jolt soon and make up the ground. It could start tonight with Spencer Schwellenbach on the hill. For the season, Schwellenbach is 3-3 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has been good overall, but there are some times when he just throws a stinky start in the mix. He has six starts of allowing two or fewer earned runs and three where he has allowed four or more. He has been very good at home though with a 2.63 home ERA. Padres hitters have struggled against him as well, hitting just .122 over 41 at-bats.

This is a game I expect the Braves to win. While I like Cease, and he seems like he is rounding into form, I think the Padres have just been in a slump and I'm not crazy about backing them. While I will probably back the Braves, I am more inclined to back the under for the game. Both of the starters have been throwing well enough to rely on them to have the edge over the opponent. 

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