Back To A Player Prop As I Look To Shake The NFL Cold Spell

Cowboys vs. Lions, 8:15 ET

Fade me. Seriously, I am actually advocating for it at this point. I had a disaster of an NFL week last week. It was even more unfortunate that I struggled so much last week because it was the most football-heavy week of the season, and I was absolutely murdered. I hit the first play of the day on Thanksgiving and then proceeded to lose every other play of the weekend. One win, six losses. Ouch. Needless to say, I'm on a journey now to get it back, but as noted, feel free to fade me until I prove it is back. Tonight, my run starts here as the Cowboys take on the Lions.

The Cowboys were one of the teams that tormented me on Thanksgiving. Why? Well, I thought that their defense had improved, and I was still thinking that the Chiefs had a reliable enough defense. Neither of which was true as the teams basically took turns running up and down the field, scoring at will. That lit my under in a hurry - as did the interception and quick score from the Chiefs to start the game. So, now, I'm back to the drawing board on the Cowboys. Did they just play a couple of inferior teams, and their defense looked good? Or did their defense actually improve over the last few weeks? I'm not sure we will have a firm answer on that. They need this game in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. If they win, their chances get to roughly 30% and without it, the result is somewhere around 5%. Either way, their defense has given their offense enough of a chance to win games as they have taken the past three games. 

Dak Prescott (4) of the Dallas Cowboys warms up prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images).

The Lions are also in need of a victory to help their playoff potential. If the playoffs started today, they would not be in. They won't be guaranteed a spot with a win today, either. They have a more optimistic look at the playoffs even with a loss, but they shoot up to almost 60% with a win. Being at home, you should expect them to take care of business. The Lions are not a flawless team, though. They've had a couple of really impressive games, and some severe duds against good teams. Their best win is over the Ravens or Buccaneers, and we've seen just how bad Baltimore has been this season. And, Tampa Bay was banged up in that game. Outside of that, they aren't really winning against good teams. To make matters worse, their entire offense is on the injured report. I'm not serious, but there is a questionable tag on all by one of their starting linemen. Their best receiver is questionable. Their third-string receiver and second-string tight end are both out. 

This is a crucial game for both teams as they still look for the hope of making the postseason. I am not overly confident the Lions can get this done with as many injuries as they have, but this is the more ideal spot for both teams. The Cowboys are terrible on the road, and the Lions are better at home. I think this is a game where we see the running backs get more work than usual for the Lions. The best way for them to win will be to keep Dak Prescott off the field. I got my lone win last week on a prop backing the under for David Montgomery. They talked all game about how the coaching staff wants to get him more involved. I think they try it in this game, and if they get a lead, which they are capable of doing, he will get more work, back his over 35.5 rushing yards.  

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024