Back Phillies To Close Out Series Today

Marlins vs. Phillies, 8:00 ET

I had a play in both of the American League games yesterday, and today, it turns out that I like a play in both of the National League games. I do think the Rangers win the series, for whatever that is worth to you, but I'm fully into this game. The Marlins look to stay alive after a long battle to just get into the playoffs, and the Phillies look to finish them off in Game 2.

When all of the Wild Card series started, this was the one that I thought had the clearest victor. I would have been most surprised if the Marlins are able to somehow pull off the series, especially now that they are down 1-0 in the series. They've also already took their best shot as they sent Jesus Luzardo to the mound yesterday and he was taken down. It wasn't a bad performance from Luzardo by any means. He held the Phillies to three runs over four innings. The Marlins just couldn't get much going against Zack Wheeler as he went 6.2 innings and allowed just one earned run. Tonight, they turn to Braxton Garrett in hopes of keeping the series alive for a decisive Game 3. They get Garrett in his best scenario as he has allowed just 25 earned runs over 79 innings on the road (compared to 40 over 80 innings at home). He pitched fairly well down the stretch as he went 53.2 innings between August and September and allowed just 17 earned runs. Only one game saw him allow more than three earned. He faced Philadelphia twice this season and the Marlins beat the Phillies in both games. He went five innings in each and allowed three earned runs as well. He hasn't pitched in Philadelphia this year though.

MIAMI, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: Jazz Chisholm Jr. #2 of the Miami Marlins reacts after hitting a grand slam in the third inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on Sunday, September 17, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Phillies have to be one of the three favorites in the National League to get to the World Series. Maybe that is a pretty obvious statement considering there are only six teams remaining in the the NL anyway, but I don't think the Diamondbacks, Brewers, or Marlins have a chance to win more than one series. Last season, the Phillies were able to reach the World Series. This year, they've arguably got a better team overall. They have two pitchers that are either Aces or front-of-the-rotation starters in Wheeler and tonight's starter, Aaron Nola. These things all go a long way as you try and march toward hoisting the trophy. Nola has been pretty solid at home this season allowing one-third of his earned runs in his home starts. He has been hit hard by the Marlins this season though as he has made three starts against them and allowed 12 earned runs over 16 innings. In every start, he allowed exactly four earned runs and the Phillies went just 1-2 in those games. Nola did end the season pretty strong as he put up back-to-back quality starts, but he's been a bit inconsistent on the season overall.

To me, a lot of the playoffs is about experience. The Phillies clearly have it and the Marlins are pretty young overall. Sure, they have a former World Series MVP in Jorge Soler on the roster, but that's not really enough. Nola has pitched in many big games and the Phillies couldn't possibly want to go to a do-or-die third game. If this game is anything like the regular season, it will be an easy over. But, I don't think that will be the case as I expect the Marlins to be a bit tight. I'm going to take the Phillies on the run line as I think they coast to victory in this one.

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