Back Nationals Early Against Reds

Reds vs. Nationals, 7:05 ET

I hope you all had a happy and safe 4th of July. I went 0-1 on the day with baseball plays but absolutely crushed the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest. The other baseball play we had was canceled when the Mets switched from their original starter to Max Scherzer. Still, it was a fun holiday and I hope you and your family enjoyed it. Now we get back to the grind with a game between the Reds and Nationals.

If you like fun stories, then you probably love the Reds. Before the season started, I thought it was a lock that the Reds would be one of the worst teams in baseball. Somehow, they are climbing the standings daily and are now sitting over .500 and almost at 50 wins before the break. I still can't really believe that the Reds are clicking like this. Their pitching staff has almost a five-run ERA. The team is somehow getting home runs and key his when they need it. For example, the Nationals actually have more hits and a better batting average. However, the Reds almost have 80 more runs than the Nationals. The Reds had a 12-game winning streak and still have gone 18-4 over the past 22 games. They are also 26-10 over their past 36 games. Today they have Graham Ashcraft pitching for them. How they are this successful with a pitcher that has a 6.66 ERA on the season is beyond me. He has been better on the road, but that's mostly due to not allowing as many home runs. Ashcraft has been alternating between bad and good starts. He allowed 10 earned, then three, then six, then one. Which would mean that he is due for a bad start. The Nationals hitters have just one hit in 12 at-bats against him.

The Nationals take on the Reds in a Wednesday evening game. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The expectations for the Nationals were much the same as the Reds. This season they were going to be one of the worst teams in the league as they looked to keep working on their continued rebuild. It isn't much of a shock here as they continue to work towards that rebuild and are one of the worst teams in the league. They have had moments of success, but overall, the Nationals haven't played great. I do have to give their starters a bit of a hat tip. They've been much maligned over the past few years, but some of the names like Patrick Corbin, and even Josiah Gray (today's starter) have been better this year than past years. Gray is sporting a 3.30 ERA coming into the game. He still has some tough starts, and has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 10.1 innings at home. However, his two most recent starts have seen him post 11.1 innings with just one earned run allowed. Reds hitters have also seen him just nine at-bats and haven't gotten a hit against him. Gray isn't quite as reliable at home as he is on the road.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Nationals can pull this game out. I think the best play here is to take the game through five innings and get the +100 play. I think Gray might be the better pitcher in this game, even though the Reds definitely have the better lineup in the matchup. I'm going to take the Nationals at +100 though five.

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