Back Miami In Rubber Match

Marlins vs. Reds, 12:35 PM

Rubber match games are some of my favorites to bet on. Both teams should have a bit of motivation to want to steal the series, but you also have already seen two games between the squads and both of them have won a game. Just because a team has won a game each doesn't mean that they are playing at equal levels though. Today, we are going to place a bet on the rubber match between the Marlins and Reds.

Both of these teams are squads I thought had no chance at the playoffs, even during the season I expected them to fall off at some point. That hasn't been the case as of yet, which is fine, I can accept being wrong because there are so many times to correct yourself during the season. The Marlins are just half a game back from the final Wild Card spot. They've been hanging in there within their own division, but even that means very little as the Braves ran away with that and the Phillies are creating separation in the division. Today, they send out Johnny Cueto to the mound. Cueto has been a pretty reliable starter and should be familiar with pitching in Great American Ballpark as he spent eight seasons with Cincinnati. This will only be Cueto's fifth start of the season and sixth appearance overall. He has eaten innings for the Marlins in his last three starts, going six innings in each of them. The problem is that he has allowed four earned runs in two of his past three starts. The only other issue is that the Marlins have lost every game that Cueto has appeared in this season. Reds hitters have been solid enough against Cueto, but nothing spectacular.

GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 10: Christian Encarnacion-Strand #94 of the Cincinnati Reds rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during a spring training game at Goodyear Ballpark on March 10, 2023 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The Reds are still fighting to win the NL Central, but now have a battle from both sides with the Cubs climbing up the rankings behind the Reds and the Brewers currently having the lead in the division. As far as a Wild Card spot, currently, the Cubs and Reds are tied for the final spot and they have three teams within four games of that final spot. If I had to lay money down on a team in this game to make the playoffs, I'm not sure that I could do it confidently with either team. Part of the problem I have is that the Reds don't have a very good pitching staff. Graham Ashcraft is the starter today and he hasn't been very good for the Reds, not at home at least. In home starts, Ashcraft has a 6.29 ERA, on the road he has an ERA almost three runs lower. His splits are bad with the day and evening as well, with his day ERA being four runs higher than night starts. Today is a home, day start, which would be his worst split situation. He did have a spectacular July going 29 innings and allowing just six earned runs. He followed that up with eight innings in his first August start where he allowed just three earned runs.

Ashcraft has pitched really well lately, and Cueto is actually a pretty decent pitcher himself. The total here is at 10 though, and I certainly understand why. Neither team has been playing very good baseball lately. Both of the teams combined for seven runs in the first game, and five runs yesterday. I probably lean toward the under, but don't feel confident one way or another. I do feel like the Marlins at plus money offers solid value. I know they are on the road which isn't ideal, but I'm going to take a shot with them at +110.

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