Back Longhorns to Beat Sooners

Oklahoma vs. Texas, 12:00 ET

College Football Saturday usually is one of the days we look forward to for a variety of reasons. Sure, it is the weekend, and, of course, we get hours of college football, but today we have some really solid matchups that will make the day even more engaging and fun to watch. Sports are great because even if we've seen Oklahoma and Texas play 100 times, this time is going to be different. What won't be different is that we are going to once again take home some money on college football.

Oklahoma has been very good this season with a 5-0 record and their current 12th rank in the nation. They opened the season with a cupcake game where they put up 73 points and shutout their opponent. I somewhat dismiss the game, but that is exactly what they were supposed to do in the game. They've since beaten SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. All of those wins were convincing victories as the closest margin was 14 points. The only thing is that I wouldn't exactly put any of those teams in the same tier as Texas. So, how can they translate the success they had to an upset of #3 Texas? It will start with their explosive passing game. Dillon Gabriel is off to a great start with over 1500 yards already and 15 touchdowns. That's 300 yards and three touchdowns per game for those non-math people out there. If he gets rolling against the Texas defense, look out, this could be a shootout. The big question is if the Oklahoma defense is up to the task of stopping the efficient Texas offense. Texas doesn't quite have the clear superstar at any position like they did with Bijon Robinson last season, but they still are a talented and difficult offense to have to stop.

NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 19: Quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 of the Oklahoma Sooners looks to throw but gets sacked for a loss by defensive end Nathan Latu #92 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys at the end of the third quarter during Bedlam at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooners won 28-13. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Texas, in my opinion, is the more tested team coming into this game. They've already knocked off Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Baylor, and Kansas. Baylor and Kansas are probably closer to the level of competition that Oklahoma has played, but Texas has also taken care of business against them. My guess is that the Longhorns are going to try and drop back into coverage and dare Oklahoma to try and beat them on the ground. It may mean the game is lower scoring, but my guess is that Texas is going to say "we can stop your run game more times than you can stop our offense." Gabriel is going to make it difficult, but it seems like Texas has the right schemes to make plays when needed. I think Gabriel is better than Jalen Milroe of Alabama but playing against that secondary was Milroe's worst completion percentage all year. Part of that is due to the pressure of the defensive line, but it also is due to Texas having a capable secondary. On offense, Quinn Ewers is no slouch and while I don't expect him to pick apart the Oklahoma defense, I do think he can lead them downfield consistently enough to have scores and not too many empty possesions.

It also helps that this game is at home for Texas. It isn't like they don't lose there or something, but the crowd and momentum from the start will be on their side. The matchup seems fairly close on paper, but the home-field edge, and I think the tests they've been through already are on the side of the Texas Longhorns and that is why I am taking them to cover the spread.

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