Back Jaguars To Maul Saints
Jaguars vs. Saints, 8:15 ET
I have to admit, if I could have one job in the world, it would be to be the NFL scheduler. I get it, there are only 32 teams, that means at most 16 games in a week, and during bye weeks even less. We get three primetime games a week (four if you want to count London games), but it seems like every week we get the same teams going. It isn't as much of a complaint as it is a reflection that this has to be the easiest job in the world. In a way, it also makes us have a bit of an advantage as it means we have had ample opportunity to focus on the specific teams. I've seen the Jaguars play quite a bit right now, and they take on the Saints tonight so I am looking forward to this play.
The Jaguars are the better team if everything is equal and there are no injuries or anything else. They have the better quarterback, they have the better defense, and I think they probably have the better coach as well. The problem is that everything is not equal. The Saints have the home-field advantage and the Jaguars quarterback is at the very least hobbled. The Jaguars went to London and won two straight games and then came back to win at home against the Colts. Normally you'd be a bit concerned about the return home and the adjustment, but it clearly didn't impact them. Tonight, I think that if Trevor Lawrence plays the game, the Jaguars will probably win the game. They are clicking and have been able to put up at least 20 points in three straight games. The Saints passing defense has pretty solid so it might make the night difficult on Jacksonville, but more on that in a second. There are a lot of good weapons that can test the Saints tonight - Calvin Ridley is having a good return season, Christian Kirk is playing solid football, and Evan Engram has been a really nice check-down option for Lawrence.
NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 10: Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates at Caesars Superdome on September 10, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
We are in Week 6, and this is the best quarterback that the Saints have faced all season. They started against Tannenhill, then went to Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and CJ Stroud last week. I give the Texans credit as Stroud has been very good this year and the team has been impressive as well, but Stroud is simply not as good of a thrower as Lawrence. Why am I bringing this up? It is because I think their success in the passing defense is a bit misleading. If the front line can get to Lawrence, they will create a balance. If they can't I'm a bit concerned that they could be exposed. I mentioned the Jaguars weapons, but the Saints have some good ones as well. Chris Olave looks like he is clicking well with Derek Carr, and Michael Thomas has provided some rejuvenated offense for the Saints. Even Alvin Kamara has been solid since coming back to the team. The problem is that Derek Carr doesn't seem to find a way to get his team in the endzone this season. Carr has only thrown five touchdowns and given the ball away three times via interceptions. The Jaguars will make it tough on Carr all night.
The Jaguars are playing very well right now, and I think they win this game as long as Lawrence plays. I get that betting on the Saints at home is usually a pretty solid idea, but in this one, I think the Jaguars have the better quarterback, defense, coach, and running game. Maybe the receivers are equal or an edge toward the Saints, but it won't be enough. I'm going to take Jacksonville to win the game.
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