Back Dodgers In Potential NLCS Preview

Braves vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET

I was thinking about taking the Tigers for the full game yesterday, but instead, I took them through five innings. It ended up working out either way as the Tigers scored three runs in the fifth and then walked off in the 10th. It seems like more runs have been scored in the fifth inning this year than any other year I can remember. I'm sure someone out there is better with searching or statistics and find out which inning has the most runs, but I'm just happy to take home the victory. Now we shift to what could be a preview of the National League Championship Series: the Braves vs. Dodgers.

In the grand scheme of things does this series matter all that much? Probably not. The Braves are still ahead of the Dodgers for first place in the National League, but Los Angeles has made up a lot of ground over the last month. That only matters for home-field advantage if they faced each other, and it is too hard to tell right now who they might match up against in Wild Card opponents. Both teams came into this series hot with the Braves now being 8-2 over their last 10 with a series-opening win last night. This is a four-game series and now the Braves are tied with the Dodgers in the season series at 2-2. They have their Ace on the mound today as they have Max Fried going. Fried came back from injury at the start of August and was able to put five starts behind him and allowed just 11 earned runs over 27.2 innings. He's also turned in three quality starts over those outings. One other was just an out short, and the other was a tough start with four innings where he allowed four earned runs. Fried has extensive history against a lot of Dodgers hitters, and has allowed 38 hits over 143 at-bats. They've actually hit him pretty well outside of Mookie Betts.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 10: Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves looks on during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 10, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The Dodgers had me concerned for a little while. They started the season basically average and even went into the second half of the season trailing the Diamondbacks in their own division. All of a sudden, they flipped a switch and were able to dominate everyone. They've gone 32-12 since the start of the second half. The offense has absolutely exploded and has covered up the shortcomings of the pitching staff. In the second half, the Dodgers have averaged almost six runs per game. The pitching staff hasn't been as sharp as in recent years and will likely be their downfall this year. One of the guys they've relied on for years, Julio Urias, starts tonight and is having a tough season. Urias comes into today's game with a 4.41 ERA. He has, however, been very solid in his home starts with a 2.30 ERA. Outside of his most recent start in August, he was doing very well. He allowed six earned runs over six innings to the Red Sox in his last outing. But the previous four in August he went 25 innings and allowed just four earned runs. He has also faced most of the Braves hitters a reasonable amount of times and has allowed just 15 hits over 84 at-bats.

I don't really like to fade Max Fried or the Braves, but one of the teams needs to win this game and I think it will be the Dodgers. The track record for Dodgers hitters against Fried is better than the track record of the Braves hitters against Urias. I also am expecting this to be a 2-2 series by the end of it. I am taking the Dodgers to win, at home, with Urias on the mound at +102.

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