Back Braves Over Phillies

Braves vs. Phillies, 4:05 ET

The Braves are still trying to chase down the Mets, it will probably be a battle that comes down to the last couple of games in the season. But, ultimately, they will make the playoffs no matter what. Today they take on the Phillies in a matchup that matters to both squads. The Phillies are trying to fight for a Wild Card berth. At this point, I really have no idea if Milwaukee or Philly or even San Diego are the best bets for winning the two finals spots.

Braves starter Kyle Wright makes his first attempt at becoming the first 20-game winner in Major League Baseball. Wright has been nothing short of fantastic for the Braves in this campaign. On the season, Wright is top 25 in both ERA and strikeouts. He also is on the cusp of that for WHIP, too. The Braves have won their last seven games that were started by Wright, and they've won 14 of their last 15 games. Wright had a very bad game against the Athletics to start the month, but he has rebounded in the next two starts. In his two most recent starts, he has gone 11.1 innings and allowed just three earned runs. Against the Phillies, he has pitched 13.2 innings in two starts, he has allowed just four earned runs. One of those starts was in Philly and it was great. I have high expectations for him today.

Bailey Falter has been fine for the Phillies, but he isn't at the same level of Wright. So far on the year, he has a 3.68 ERA. One spot that he struggles is home starts. He has a 4.54 ERA and has allowed 18 earned runs in 35 innings. He has been great in the past two months though. Since the start of August, he has six starts and has allowed nine runs in 34.1 innings. Against Atlanta, he didn't go very deep into the game, but he did go 4.2 innings and allowed just one earned run. Much like the Braves in games with Wright, the Phillies have been successful in Falter's starts. They have won eight of their last 10 games started by Falter.

So, we have two solid pitchers, and two teams that are winning when their starter starts. How do we play it? For me, the edge is very clearly for the Braves. I like their chances in this one and am taking them for the full game at -125.

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