Back Boston To Upset Slumping Twins In Minnesota

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Minnesota Twins (65-61) starter RHP Dylan Bundy (7-6, 4.56 ERA) had no business being -155 favorites. That's how high Minnesota's moneyline (ML) was before the sharps start backing the Boston Red Sox (62-66).

All this line movement is despite 60% of the DraftKings Sportsbook's Red Sox-Twins handle being on Minnesota's ML (-125) per VSIN. The oddsmakers lowering the price of the favorite even though the Twins are the more popular side is a red flag.

The market analysis is my favorite angle for BETTING BOSTON RED SOX (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook. But, the betting market underrates Boston's starter and the Twins CF Byron Buxton injury weakens Minnesota's lineup.

Red Sox Have The Pitching Edge

Red Sox starter RHP Brayan Bello (0-3, 7.36 ERA) is Boston’s best pitching prospect and ranked 37th in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. 

His stuff is nasty. Bello’s fastball tops 97 mph and his changeup has a 43.6% whiff rate per Statcast. Also, Bello’s pitching peripherals indicate his basic numbers will improve. I.e. his FIP (3.03), which stands for "Fielding Independent Pitching".

Furthermore, I'll take Boston's bullpen over Minnesota's. The Red Sox relievers are better by FIP (4.00-3.91), home runs allowed per 9 (1.21-0.92) and WAR (2.4-1.1), according to FanGraphs. Boston's bullpen is fresher as well.

Boston's Lineup >>> Minnesota

Buxton's 10-day IL stint makes Minnesota's lineup easier for Bello to navigate. And while Boston's lineup has been slightly disappointing this season, it's at least at full strength. Red Sox All-Stars 3B Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are raking this season and familiar with Bundy's arsenal.

Finally, Boston's lineup has been more productive lately. The Red Sox rank 6th in wRC+ (117), 5th in wOBA (.338) and 2nd in hard-hit rate (45.3%) over the last two weeks, per FanGraphs. Whereas Minnesota has a 96 wRC+ (ranked 17th), .298 wOBA (18th) and 36.6% hard-hit rate (19th).

GET over to DraftKings Sportsbook to BET BOSTON RED SOX (+105) before this number gets any lower.

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.