Back Baz, Birds To Blast Giants

Giants vs. Orioles, 7:15 ET

Last season was the first time I really struggled with betting the MLB. It wasn't a terrible year by any means, it just wasn't as profitable or successful for me as usual. Last year, I kept waiting for a surge or some sort of hot streak like I normally would get. It never came, unfortunately. I had a lot of 1-1 days. I didn't alter much for this year because I feel like my system has worked for a long time, so I'm not going to change everything based on one tough season. I have a look here that I feel is a great opportunity for us between the Giants and the Orioles.

The Giants are not quite stumbling out of the gate, but at 5-8, not exactly where the team wants to be either. I know the Giants are in a division they likely have no chance in. However, that doesn't mean they can't win games or compete for a Wild Card. They have a strong lineup, and their infield is one of the better in baseball with Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Luis Arraez. Chapman looks great, and Arraez is doing his typical productive work, but Devers could probably improve at the dish a bit. On the mound, the Giants will have Landen Roupp tonight. He is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA for the season and a 1.13 WHIP. It is a bit hard to tell what Roupp is after these two starts. In the first one, he went six scoreless innings allowing just two hits and two walks. In his next start, he allowed seven runs on seven hits and one walk over 4.2 innings. There isn't much experience to speak of against Roupp from the Orioles. 

Jun 20, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants designated hitter Rafael Devers (16) waits to bat against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Baltimore invested a lot into the team, and as of right now, they are better than last year, but not where they want to be. Last year seemed like a disaster from the start. This year, the team is 6-6 which isn't going to get them into a playoff spot if we expanded it to the full season. They were hoping that this would be a bounce back year from some guys, and the offseason additions would impact the team right away. Taylor Ward certainly has, but Pete Alonso is batting .188 with one homer and three RBIs. Another guy they brought over in the offseason is tonight's starter, Shane Baz. In his first two starts, he has allowed five earned runs on 11 hits and three walks over 11 innings. Although there are only 19 at-bats against him from the Giants hitters, they are all from the four guys I mentioned above and they are 2-for-19 with Devers going 0-for-10 with five strikeouts. 

I think the Orioles will win this one. I know it matters a lot more in basketball, and to some extent football, but I don't like taking teams in the first game of a cross-country trip. That isn't the only reason, I think Baz is a much better pitcher than Roupp. The Orioles being at home helps, too. At just -126, I think this is a great line for us to grab. I also like Devers under 0.5 hits at +122. It will be a sprinkle on that one, but I will play the Orioles moneyline. 

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