Back Bassitt To Beat 'Backs

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

I wrote yesterday about a play that I didn't have a ton of confidence in, but liked the value in the play. I shared a lean that hit, but the overall play lost. I've been asked a bunch of times by people why I would play something that I think has a probability of losing. The reality is that no play I put out do I ever think is going to be a loser, but without getting too into the concept of value, if I think I'm getting paid more than I should, and there is some edge, I'll play it. Baseball is a sport where any team can win on any given day. Take calculated risks, but like poker, get the most money in when you are sure you have the best play. I'm not sure this is the best play ever, but I do have a lot of confidence in this one between the Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays. 

The Diamondbacks are above .500 once again, but that still is only good enough to be above the lowly Rockies in their division. They are currently in fourth place and look like this could be a long season for them. They have been teetering above and below .500 all year and now rumors are circulating about if they plan to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. The Dodgers are going to be in the playoffs, the Padres are probably going to be above everyone except the Dodgers in the division, and the Giants just got stronger by adding Rafael Devers. So… do the Diamondbacks sell off some players, do they try and make a push, or do they stand pat and hope next year the pitching improves. One guy that would be nice to get some improvement from is tonight's starter, Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is 8-4 for the season which is a nice mark, but he has a 5.50 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has been worse on the road with an ERA that is almost touching seven runs per game. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his past five road outings and four or more in three of those starts. He doesn't have much experience against the Blue Jays as just two hitters have faced him and both have gone 1-for-2. 

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field in Phoenix, on June 10, 2025.

The Blue Jays are an intriguing bunch in their own way. They are above .500, but so are three other teams in the division. They are still a bit behind Tampa Bay for second place in the division, but only four games back of the Yankees. This is a similar division to that of the NL West, but I suppose the Orioles could potentially make a run and become relevant before the end of the season. The Blue Jays are not afraid to invest in the club, so it will be interesting to see what they do at the trade deadline as well. I do think there are some players on their injured list that might make a bigger impact to the club with their return than if they traded for players. We will see. Tonight's starter, Chris Bassitt, is a guy who could be a difference maker. At home, he has been very strong, with just 11 earned runs allowed in 40 innings. He has been kind of brutal on the road, though. He has had exactly one start this year at home, where he has allowed more than one earned run in the game. Diamondbacks hitters are decent against him, going 17-for-63 overall. 

I think this game is one that the Blue Jays should win relatively easily. I am seeing a bit of line movement toward Arizona, but that could be due to them being the hotter team at the moment. It also could be due to the Blue Jays getting swept over the weekend. But keep in mind, Toronto is 22-13 at home, and not above .500 on the road. I'll take the pitcher who has been very reliable at home this season, and the team that has a great home record on the moneyline. Back the birds.

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