Back Badgers In First Half Of Big Ten Battle

Wisconsin vs. Illinois, 2:30 ET

Who doesn't love a little bit of a close call? We had plenty of excitement and interesting looks in yesterday's games as Duke narrowly survived, Houston struggled with BYU, Clemson (kind of) upset North Carolina, and Miami Ohio lost their first game. You know it is March when we get into these Conference Tournaments, and anything can happen. We get some marquee matchups today, and one that I love is between Wisconsin and Illinois. 

Wisconsin is a sneaky good team. With all of the talent that was in the Big 10 this year, there really wasn't much conversation about the Badgers. I won't sit here and pretend that I watched every game, but I did see a fair share, and this is a very good team. They ended the year 23-9, which isn't overwhelming. They also were just 14-6 in Big 10 play, but only a few of those losses were surprising. They lost at home to USC, which was a bit odd. Four of the other five Big 10 losses were on the road to Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. That's part of what tells me this team is just largely inconsistent. They beat Michigan and Illinois on the road, but not Oregon and Ohio State? At some point you need it to make sense, and I can't get a great feel for when this team performs and when they don't. They have three guys averaging 13 points per game or more, and when they all score well together, it seems like they can compete with anyone. 

Illinois hasn't been without frustration if you're a fan. They have consistently been ranked as one of the best teams in the country, but they don't always play like it. They are 24-7 for the season, and they went 15-5 in the Big 10 this year, but they finished the season 4-4. The only real blemish on their record, in terms of losses, was against UCLA, and that game was on the road where they lost by one in overtime. The other losses were to Alabama, UConn, Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They did have some nice wins on the resume as well, though. They beat Texas Tech, Tennessee, Iowa, Purdue, and Nebraska this season. The only note I'll make about who they've beaten is that if I am putting teams into tiers, they lost to Michigan and UConn, two teams with legitimate title shots. The teams they've beaten are ones that I think are in the same category as the Illini, good, but not great. And, to be fair there are only a few teams I think are legitimate contenders (Duke, UConn, Florida, Michigan, Houston, and Arizona is fringe in my book). 

In the first matchup between these two, Wisconsin won in overtime at Illinois. That was a high-scoring game with 182 points being poured in. Win probability, which is somewhat silly of a stat, was overwhelmingly on Illinois' side for everything except the last two minutes and overtime of the game. It really was just free throws that did the Illini in. They were evenly matched or better in every other category. Wisconsin does have the advantage of having already played a game yesterday, but it was a tight one against Washington. Illinois hasn't played in days and will need to adjust to the arena. I think the Badgers getting 8.5 is a bit disrespectful, but I think the safer option is the first half. Give me the Badgers with the points in the first half of this one.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024