AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 Best Bets, One-And-Done
We go from one iconic California golf course to another. Pebble Beach Golf Links in the Bay Area hosts this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024, the second "signature event" of the PGA Tour 2024 season. There's an 80-golfer field this week with no cut and a $20 million prize pool.
OutKick Bets Podcast: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 Best Bets Featuring Dan Zaksheske
Like last week's Farmers Insurance Open, the AT&T Pro-Am will rotate between two courses. Golfers will tee it up at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course Thursday and Friday before playing the final two rounds at Pebble Beach.
Justin Rose poses with the trophy on the 18th hole of the final round of the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Aside from the star-studded field, the biggest story from this event may be the weather conditions. With the exception of Saturday, rain and wind is forecasted at Pebble Beach for the next 10 days. Last year's AT&T Pro-Am finished Monday due to weather suspensions.
Heads up: I’m researching my PGA Tour 2024 bets from models built with the tools courtesy of BetTheNumberGolf.com from the Tour Junkies golf show and Pat Mayo’s FantasyNational.com. I was -3.55 units (u) at last week’s Farmers. My PGA Tour 2024 balance is -14.05u through the first four events this season.
My gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10 or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 Picks
Jordan Spieth
He crushes this event: Spieth has six top-10s in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am including a win in 2017. Pebble Beach is a links-style course, which fits Jordan’s games. He is the 2017 Champion Golf of the Year and finished inside the top 10 in three other Open Championships.
This course has the most sand traps on the PGA Tour. Over the last 50 rounds, Spieth leads the field in Sand Saves, per FantasyNational.com. There are several Par 4s less than 400 yards at Pebble Beach. Spieth is first in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 350-400 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Jordan Spieth hits his tee shot on the 13th hole during the second round of the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at the Monterey Peninsula Country Club. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
A golfer’s short game is important at Pebble Beach since it has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Spieth is a short-game specialist. Even if he misses the green, Jordan is almost a “lock” to save par if not chip it in for a birdie. You need to take advantage of the Par 5s. Spieth leads the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Par 5 over the last 50 rounds.
Finally, Jordan played well at the first “signature event” of 2024, The Sentry. It was another small-field, no-cut event at an easy golf course, Kapalua Resort. Neither Kapalua nor Pebble Beach is a “bomber’s paradise”. Spieth shot 27-under to finish solo 3rd in the Sentry.
First thoroughbred for Pebble Beach: Jordan Spieth
Brian Harman
The Butcher, as the English nicknamed him, is the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year. He finished T6 in the 2022 Open Championship and T16 the year prior. Meaning, Harman plays well at links-style, coastal courses such as Pebble Beach.
Harman was T65 at the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T39 in 2021, and shot 4-under at both events. I’m overlooking Harman’s poor course history since these Pro-Ams turn into putting contests and Harman is one of the best putters on Tour.
He lost strokes on the greens in his other two starts at Pebble Beach. But, Harman has gained strokes putting in 12 of his last 13 PGA Tour events, per Fantasy National. He was +4.7 SG: Putting at The Sentry and +7.7 SG: Putting at the Sony Open earlier this month.
Brian Harman poses with the Claret Jug after winning The 151st Open Championship 2023 at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Harman’s whole short game is on point. His Sand Save rate is 11.4 percent higher than the PGA Tour average over the past 24 rounds, according to the Tour Junkies’ “Bet The Number” model. His scrambling rate is 12.6 percent higher over that span.
Lastly, the weakest club in Harman’s bag is the driver. Since Pebble Beach is a small course, his bad off-the-tee game won’t be a dealbreaker. Harman will be firing at pins and can rely on his short game to score birdies or better.
Second thoroughbred for Pebble Beach: Brian Harman
Adam Scott
I went to Scott’s DataGolf.com profile page and was surprised to see his recent form. Scott has nine top-10 finishes in 17 starts since May 2023 including four straight. I didn’t know about this because Scott’s past three top-10 finishes have been on the DP World Tour, which I don’t follow.
Two top-10’s include a T5 at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship and a T9 Memorial Tournament in June. Both of those are “signature events” on the PGA Tour. He did place T5 at the Bermuda Championship on the PGA Tour in November.
The Bermuda is a “swing season” event so no one paid attention to it. However, the Bermuda Championship is at a short, coastal course so that performance applies to this Pebble Beach handicap.
Adam Scott hits out of a bunker on the 2nd hole in the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
The 2013 Masters champion checks my most important box for this tournament: Putting. Pebble Beach Golf Links has Poa grass greens. Over the last 24 rounds, Scott is sixth in this field for SG: Putting on Poa.
It’s his best putting surface and Poa is the only type of greens Scott gains strokes on. The Aussie has gained strokes on the greens in nine of his last 10 PGA Tour starts with shot-link data, according to FantasyNational.com. Scott is +2.8 SG: Putting per event over that span.
Third thoroughbred for Pebble Beach: Adam Scott
Hideki Matsuyama
Eric Cole was the last golfer to make my AT&T Pebble Beach betting card originally. Yet, the bottom line is Matsuyama’s odds are too good to pass up. Hideki has worse odds than several guys who have never won anything on the PGA Tour such as Cole. He is an 8-time winner on Tour including the 2021 Masters champion.
There is no course history to reference because this is Matsuyama's AT&T Pebble Beach debut. However, this is a good setup for him. There are a ton of approach shots from 50-125 yards out and Pebble Beach has some of the toughest greens on Tour.
Hideki Matsuyama plays a 3rd shot Saturday in the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
According to my Bet The Number 40-model, Hideki leads this field in approach shots from 50-125 yards. Plus, golfers will miss a lot of greens here so around-the-green (ARG) play is important to save par. Over the last 75 rounds, Matsuyama ranks sixth in SG: ARG and 4th in Bogey Avoidance.
Fourth thoroughbred for Pebble Beach: Hideki Matsuyama
Head-to-Head: Justin Thomas (-110) over Ludvig Åberg at DraftKings Sportsbook
There's just too much hype around Åberg and people are too down on JT after his disappointing 2022-23 season. Åberg should be matched up against Sam Burns or Cameron Young who both have +4000 odds to win the AT&T Pro-Am.
Instead, DraftKings Sportsbook is pitting Ludvig against Thomas who is a two-time major winner and would be in the +1000 to +1400 range if it weren't for last season's dud. I'm buying low on JT in this head-to-head because he has a much better short game.
Poa greens is Thomas's best putting surface and he ranks second in this field for SG: ARG over the last 75 rounds. While Åberg is 48th in SG: ARG and 65th in Sand Saves over that span.
For the record, I'm BETTING 1.1u on JUSTIN THOMAS (-110) to beat Ludvig Åberg in a full tournament head-to-head at Pebble Beach.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 'One-And-Done' Pick: Jordan Spieth
Through the 1st four events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I joined this season), I'm in a tie for 198th-place out of 4,400 entries with $955,555 collected.
Previous Picks
If this weren't a "signature event", I'd probably use another golfer. Spieth's event history would make him a popular play at the AT&T Pro-Am. Yet, due to the elevated field, golfers like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland could be more popular.