Astros Will Head Home Up 3-2

Astros vs. Rangers, 5:07 ET

It is all tied up ladies and gentlemen. Now that all four games have officially been won by the road team in this series, we have a fresh start of a best-of-three series between the Astros and the Rangers. Both teams will get their best pitchers one more time, and both teams will look to take this hugely important Game 5.

This series is almost like an extremely miniature version of the Astros season. The Astros won the World Series last year but looked like an average team to start the season. They came out and weren't hot at all. Sure, Jose Altuve was injured, but he was just one person, the rest of the team was kind of struggling. They started to make a bit of a run and then were able to add Justin Verlander at the deadline. They were chasing the Rangers before they finally caught them. Now, in this series, they started fairly slowly before catching up and... well... overcoming the Rangers as they did in the regular season is still yet to be seen. Tonight they have the aforementioned Verlander taking the hill in this swing game. He's been up to Verlander-type things this postseason as he has allowed just two earned runs over 12.2 innings. The problem is that the two earned runs were the only runs scored in the game against the Rangers in the series opener. He did face Texas once in the regular season and it was in Arlington. In that game, he went a solid seven innings and allowed just one earned run on a solo homer.

Sep 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) throws during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

After starting the postseason without a loss, the Rangers have now dropped two straight and find themselves on the wrong side of momentum in this series. I wouldn't say that they've played poorly or anything. In fact, I think in both of these home games, the offense has been still reliable. The problem is that their pitching is starting to fall apart. It also doesn't help that the Astros lineup is heating up. Perhaps their stopper can also come from a midseason acquisition. The Astros had Verlander return, but the Rangers picked up Jordan Montgomery to bolster their own staff. Montgomery was outstanding in the series opener as he outdueled Verlander. He helped blank the Astros in the series opener as he allowed just five hits and one walk over 6.1 innings while striking out six hitters. If he can do it again, I'd be a bit surprised. He's a decent enough pitcher, but in this game, that is a very important one to take, I think he will have a shorter leash. The Rangers offense can overcome a lot of deficits, but it is important for them to get a lead in this game so they can all breathe a little bit.

I think the Astros win this game. I have a ticket on them to win the series, but that's honestly not influencing the decision. What is really driving this is that I think they've found their groove and are going to continue to pound the ball. I also think Montgomery's series-opening start was the exception to his performances, but not the standard.

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