Astros Will Advance Tonight Against Twins

Astros vs. Twins, 7:07 ET

This has been a very good playoff stretch for me and I am hoping that it doesn't slow down any time soon. The one loss we've had in the Division Round came in a game the Phillies ended up blowing. Overall, we are something like 6-2 on individual games and have done decent on the futures. Tonight, we focus in on the Astros and the Twins in a clinching game.

The Astros are one win away from yet another American League Championship Series (ALCS). They came into Minnesota and absolutely trounced the Twins last night after splitting the opening two games in Houston. Will they be able to close it out tonight or will it go to a do-or-die Game 5 back in Houston? The series has had much higher scores than I expected it to have with the Astros scoring 17 runs in three games. The pitching has been a bit of an issue as they've allowed the Twins, not exactly an offensive juggernaut, to score 11 runs in three games. Tonight, they hope that Jose Urquidy can limit the amount of runs the Twins put on the board. This season Urquidy only made 10 starts and 16 total appearances. He allowed 37 earned runs over his 63 innings pitched, good for a 5.29 ERA. He only pitched in April, August, and September this season. His best start of the season game in his last outing where he allowed just two hits and no earned runs over six innings. He did face the Twins in Minnesota earlier this season and allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings. The Astros lost that game 3-2 in 10 innings.

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 08: Carlos Correa #4 of the Minnesota Twins bats during game two of the Division Series against the Houston Astros on October 8, 2023 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)

The Twins being back at home have to feel a bit of comfort at least. They were 13 games over .500 at home during the season and only 12 games over .500 overall for the season. After sweeping Toronto with ease, they dropped the opener to the Astros and now find themselves with their backs against the wall needing to win two in a row in order to get to the ALCS. The Twins did win the season series against the Astros, and two games isn't exactly a tall task for them to win. I'm not a big believer in the Twins and have been open about that, but I'd have my head in the sand if I didn't at least give them a bit of credit lately. Their fate rests on the right arm of starting pitcher Joe Ryan. Ryan was reliable for the Twins in terms of availability. He made 29 starts, but he ended the season 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA. The bad news for the Twins is that he allowed nine runs to the Twins (four in one game and five in the other) over 10 innings pitched this season. That's a concern for tonight, but somehow he only allowed seven hits in those games. He didn't start against the Blue Jays but he allowed 17 earned runs over 30.2 innings in September.

I'd be a bit surprised if this is a low-scoring game with these two on the mound. I'm concerned the Twins will be a bit tense for this game, but I suppose after this squad broke the 18-playoff game loss streak, they might be looser than I think. Still, I would be surprised if the Astros don't close it out here. They are the better team, with more experience, and I think they are better prepared for tonight. Ryan has a decent enough history, outside of this year, against the Astros, but I'll back Houston at +105.

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