Astros Should Take Down Tigers To Avoid Sweep

Astros vs. Tigers, 1:10 ET

Playoff previews are always fun games to bet on. Any game is fun to bet on, but when two teams are vying for playoff spots and seeding, it always gets a bit more interesting. In tonight's matchup we have two teams who are likely to make the playoffs squaring off. Depending on how everything shakes out, it is possible they could match up after the Wild Card round or not until the American League Championship Series. There is still a lot of baseball to go before we get there, though as the Astros take on the Tigers.

The Astros are still in control of their division. The Mariners are trying, and did virtually everything correctly at the trade deadline, to take the division away from Houston, but right now, they are still in control. I would not call it a comfortable lead for the Astros as they are just 1.5 games above their divisional foes. However, they have some breathing room. The more concerning part for them should be that if they did lose the division, the Wild Card is not a completely sure thing. The Royals and Guardians are both playing better baseball lately and are hot on the heels of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners who were all tied for the three Wild Card spots yesterday. Today, the Astros look to slow down the Tigers with one of their best pitcher's Framber Valdez. One of the things I've always liked about Valdez was his consistency. Every five days you could write in a quality start with permanent marker. It has been largely the same this season with Valdez getting 17 quality starts this year out of his 24 outings. He has struggled on the road though so we do have reason for caution here. His ERA is 4.22 on the road, compared to 1.85 at home. Tigers hitters are also performing pretty well against Valdez, hitting .264 against him. 

Aug 9, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels in the first inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Tigers are also in control of their divsion and while they are feeling a bit more pressure from the Guardians and Royals, it is fairly unlikely that they are going to lose this one. They've been in control of the division for the majority of the season and have been viewed as one of the best teams in baseball. I personally think their offense won't hold up in the playoffs, but their starters should give them a chance to win, specifically with Tarik Skubal being able to throw two games in a five-game series, and three in a seven if needed. To bolster their rotation at the deadline, they added today's starter, Charlie Morton. Morton is a veteran who even pitched with these Astros at one point. His numbers for the season aren't not overly impressive with an 8-10 record, 5.20 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP. He has made three starts for Detroit and his two road ones were great, going 12.1 innings and allowing one earned runs on six hits. His home start was a disaster, going 4.1 innings with six earned runs allowed, and 4.1 innings. Even when he was with the Orioles earlier in the year and threw as a visiting pitcher against Detroit, he allowed three earned over 3.2 innings. Overall, the Astros have hit just .211 against him, so there can be a bit of optimism there.

The line is moving in favor of Detroit, and frankly I'm not sure why. Perhaps it is because the Astros have lost three straight and don't look great at the moment. There could be other reasons in play. For me, the side makes more sense to play the Astros. Morton is a good pitcher, but I don't find him nearly as consistent as Valdez. The other angle would be to take the over. Both starters should give up some runs, even if we can't count on them to give up six combined. I think the Astros and the over are the correct plays for this one.

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