Angels Have Great Value As Dog Today

Angels vs. Braves, 7:15 ET

I was really confident in my play yesterday, and someone I respect quite a bit was even more confident than I was. The play in question was the Cardinals taking on the Pirates. I was not confident that the Pirates would win the game just because Paul Skenes was on the mound. It ended up being a situation where I was pretty correct about the game, but the result was a bad one. The Pirates won the game 1-0 on an eighth-inning run. It was a brutal way to lose the game. I'm looking at the line for this game between the Angels and Braves, and it once again feels like we have an edge.

The Angels are better than you probably even realize. For so many seasons, the team has been maligned and has dealt with injuries. Sure, everyone deals with injuries, and the Angels have had to deal with their own this season as well. Mike Trout was injured but is back in the lineup and at least playing fairly well. He already has more games played this year than he has in four of the past five seasons. I really wish that he was healthy because it would've been interesting to see just how great he could've been. One strong contributor to the team's success this season is today's starter, Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is 3-6 for the year with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. The WHIP does concern me a little bit as I think it is higher than I would like for that ERA. Meaning there is probably some negative regression ahead. He has also been worse on the road compared to at home this season. On the road, his ERA is 4.47 and at home, his ERA is just 1.12. The reality is that his two worst outings were four runs allowed in those games. The Braves have been very good against Kikuchi, hitting .294 collectively against him in 68 at-bats. 

FRANCISCO VICIOSO ATLANTA BRAVES

The Braves are probably worse than the casual fan would realize. The team has had much success for multiple seasons, even when dealing with the injuries from past seasons. They have found ways to win in the past, but this season it feels like they just keep slipping. Outside of the first week or so of the season, the team is basically a .500 club. The roster indicates they should be better than that, but the team has a few major concerns. Most of them, at least in my humble opinion, are based on their pitching staff. Didier Fuentes takes the ball for the club today and he won't last long if he continues to throw the way he is right now. He has made just two starts and allowed 10 earned runs in 8.1 innings. He isn't missing many bats either with 14 hits allowed in the two games. There is a bit of reason for optimism. This will be his first home start, which gives him a bit more comfort with the fans on his side. I think they are still likely to have a short leash with him, though. The Braves do have one of the better bullpens in the league.

I am usually pretty conservative when I am not getting a ton of games correct. However, I really don't feel like this is a risk or an issue. The Angels are actually a better team this season, even if they probably don't have the better roster. They should have a more reliable pitcher. I think we probably get an over in this game, but I'm taking the Angels to win this. Kikuchi has been reliable and I think it is worth it here, especially since they are dogs in this game.  

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