An Under In A Braves Game? It Could Happen Tonight

Braves vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

This weekend wasn't terrible. It wasn't exactly good either, but we have been on a nice run over the past couple of weeks and I want to extend the run as long as I can before the inevitable struggle. Baseball is probably my favorite sport to bet, but my least favorite sport to watch. It is probably the reason that I'm good at sports betting though. I have seen and interpreted the different stats while also incorporating a bit of the eye test. It seems like there are more stats in baseball than any other sport as well. When I saw something today for the Braves and Mariners, it didn't pass that eye test, but I had to back it up with stats to be sure. 

This probably will come as a shock to none of the regular readers, or even a passive fan, but the Braves are once again a great baseball team. They've played so well over the past few years, even a short losing streak would make you a bit surprised. Right now, they've won four of their past five games and have been amazing both on the road and at home. Their 19-7 record is among the best in the MLB and there are no reasons to think they would slow down any time soon. Their offense was incredibly dominant last season, and I thought it might regress a bit this year. So far, it is essentially the same. Their pitching staff has some great arms, including today's starter Max Fried. He hasn't looked great overall this season with 14 earned runs allowed in five starts. However, he is coming off his best start of the season when he threw a complete game shutout. There have only been two quality starts from Fried this season. In his worst starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs over five innings. Maybe it just took a moment for him to get back on track? 

Apr 23, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried (54) pitches against the Miami Marlins during the first inning  at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Just like the Braves somewhat replicating their season from last year, the Mariners are pretty similar. Seattle is off to around a .500 record and will likely hover around that mark for most of the season. I like the Marines to be honest, but they seem to fluctuate between winning streaks and losing streaks without gaining much ground, or losing too much. The team is capable of getting hot and reeling off wins - that's why they were in the playoff race last season. Currently, the Mariners have won three of their past five games. None of those games have gone over seven runs combined from the two teams. Most of that is due to a very strong pitching staff from the Mariners, and obviously just enough hitting. Tonight, they send out Bryce Miller to the hill to combat Fried. Miller has been very good this year with three quality starts and not allowing more than two earned runs in any of his past four outings. In fact, on the season he has only allowed seven earned runs over 28.1 innings. The biggest issue with Miller is that he does allow home runs and we know the Braves are capable of hitting dingers. He's faced the Braves before and has held them to just three hits in 19 at-bats. 

You won't see too many games with the Braves involved that are going to have a total of just 7.5. The Braves offense is capable of putting up seven or eight runs by themselves almost any night. However, with Fried looking good lately and Miller pitching for the Mariners, I think the pitching might be able to get the edge. I also very rarely like a team going from the east to the west with no rest. The Braves body clock will be almost 10 PM when this game starts. They could probably roll out of bed and hit, but this is a good chance for a Mariners win and the under. I'll play just the under, but I do think the Mariners are live dogs here. 

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