Alcantara And Abbott Will Bounce Back

Marlins vs. Reds, 7:10 ET

It was another 1-1 day for me on the diamond, but I felt significantly better about the way I lost the first game than I did about the game that I lost on Monday. On Monday, my loss really had no chance whatsoever. Tuesday, my play still lost, but it wasn't that bad. I had the Mets to win the game through five innings, but they ended up losing 1-0 after five innings. I wasn't off by all that much, it still is a loss which isn't acceptable, but I did also recommend to take the Mets for the full game and they won, so at least that could've helped some get a winning day. Today we go to a different NL East team as the Marlins take on the Reds.

When I wrote about the Marlins recently, I discussed how it was impressive that this team is as successful as they are right now. Miami hasn't been the best team in baseball or anything, but they have figured out how to use a roster with very little well-known talent and win some games. They are still under .500 for the year, but they are in third place, which is at least a spot higher than I would've expected from the club. They also have a winning record on the road, which is not something many teams can boast about. Originally, they looked like they would be a seller at the deadline, but it is possible now that they keep their players. I'm not fully convinced they are buyers, or even stand pat. I would guess they still sell at the deadline because this franchise is a disaster. Their best asset to trade away is one who has terrible numbers but has improved lately and is today's starter, Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara is 4-8 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has been brutal on the road this season with an ERA over nine. He also has made back-to-back starts with at least five earned runs allowed. Alcantara has been good against Reds hitters in the past, holding them to just eight hits in 42 at-bats. 

Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara delivers a pitch in the 1st inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)

The Reds have been fairly consistent all year. In recent plays I've detailed how they are an average team in most major statistical categories. I won't rehash that here, but I will just mention that this is a team that hasn't been too far under .500 for the season, and they haven't been too far over .500 for the season either. They actually haven't been more than three games under .500, and no more than four games over .500 at any point in this season. They have lost four straight games and are at 46-46 for the season as of today. Their offense has disappeared over the past four games, scoring a total of five runs while allowing 25. They get arguably their best pitcher taking the ball to vault them over .500 today as Andrew Abbott takes the hill. Abbott enters the game with a 7-1 record and a 2.15 ERA. He is also the owner of a 1.09 WHIP. None of the numbers rank as he doesn't have enough innings to qualify, but he has still completed 83.2 innings this season. He is coming off of one of his worst starts, he allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings, but the Reds did win the game 9-6. He has only had 12 at-bats against him from Marlins hitters and they did get five hits, including a grand slam. 

If we are looking at these pitcher's performances, I feel like Abbott has overperformed and Alcantara has underperformed. That doesn't mean that the Marlins are guaranteed to win and the Reds are guaranteed to lose. I do think the Reds win this game, but I thought that the other day as well. Neither offense is amazing, either. The Reds are in a slump, but maybe they just need to face a struggling pitcher like Alcantara to break out of it. I'm just not convinced this game goes over the 8.5. I do see some heavy juice on the over, but that makes me a bit concerned because typically books would just push the number if they thought it was going to be 9 or 9.5. I'll back the under instead and hope Alcantara can regain the form he showed for most of June.

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