AL East Battle Will Be As Close To Playoffs As We Can Get In April

Yankees vs. Orioles, 6:35 ET

It is almost May, so saying that this is a big series is a bit ridiculous, but the reality of the situation is that this is the AL East and there are very talented teams. That means that every time they square off the games are a bit more important. I mean if the Yankees are swept or the Orioles are swept in this four-game series there is plenty of time to make up the ground, but I do expect these games to have a bit more intensity than a typical late-April outing. Let's take a look at how to play the opener as the Yankees take on the Orioles. 

The Yankees are looking like the team that I expected them to be last season. All it takes is a bit of health and one of the games brightest young stars apparently. As a kid, I used to hate that the Yankees always got the big free agent, and they were able to spend constantly. Now as an adult, I love that a team does that. We have a bunch of clubs that refuse to spend money. It makes no sense considering how much teams generate when they make a playoff run, but this is a completely different story. In any case, the Yankees got Juan Soto and he has been great for them with a .318 average and seven home runs already this season. He's leading the team in homers, RBIs, walks, average, hits, runs, and even doubles. So… yeah, that was a good trade for them. He's going to make a boatload of money in the offseason. Like Ohtani money if he wants it. Today, the Yankees have Clarke Schmidt taking on the Orioles. Schmidt has been solid this season, but not pitching overly deep into games. He has accumulated 25.1 innings over five starts and allowed just 10 earned runs on the year. I am not sure if the Yankees are just taking him out before things get too bad for him or if the pitch count is too high, but it feels like the Yankees could leave him in longer. Either way, it is working because they are 5-0 in his starts this season. 

Mar 30, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (30) throws a first inning pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Orioles are playing well to start the season, but they are just 2-3 over the past five games and alternating wins and losses. If you want to take a bit of solace in the losses, two of their past three losses came by just one run. If you zoom out a bit you see that the losses came at the hands of the Athletics. Oakland isn't quite as bad as they were projected, but they aren't in the same conversation as the Orioles. The team is hitting rather well this season and has four guys batting .300 or better and another two who are within 15 points of the mark. Baltimore still relies on their pitching staff to do a lot of the damage and tries to get the ball to the bullpen as quickly as possible. Grayson Rodriguez is taking the ball for the Orioles and he had pitched rather well for the team before this most recent start against the Angels. In his first four starts he went 24 innings and allowed seven earned runs. Then in his most recent start against the Angels, he allowed seven earned runs in 4.1 innings. Rodriguez has been good against the Yankees in his career with just two hits allowed to them in 20 at-bats. I think he might be able to get back on track here. 

These two teams are familiar with each other and know the strengths and weaknesses of the other. I don't know who will win this one and it will likely be a rather close game. The Yankees are technically underdogs in the game but on the run line the Orioles are getting 1.5 runs and it is listed at -198. That's just to give you a sense of how the books view this game as well. I'm taking the under here though. Rodriguez, aside from his last game, has pitched very well. Both bullpens are strong, and Schmidt has pitched well this season with the Yankees limiting his exposure. I'll take the under 9. 

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