AL Division Series Betting Preview

The American League Divisional Series are set. After four sweeps in the Wild Card round (both in the American and National League), something I certainly didn't expect, we have two new series to consider. I will say I didn't do great on the futures I had for the Wild Card round, but I did go 3-1 in the individual games, so I'm now looking to get some of that future cash back to get into the black again. Let's take a look at the American League series and see what we can bet.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The Rangers took down the Rays and now must take on the Orioles. Will the Rangers be the AL East slayers, or will the Orioles continue to surprise everyone as the #1 seed in the American League and advance to the Championship series? The Rangers have the hitting edge, and it really isn't even as close as you might think considering the Orioles had the best record in the AL. The Rangers had 74 more runs scored, 71 more hits, and 50 more home runs than the birds. Their pitching was phenomenal against the Rays in the two games, holding them to just one run in the 18 innings. The starting pitching went 13.2 innings and allowed just the one run. The Orioles might have the better pitching staff, but they don't really have too many pitchers with playoff experience. They arguably have the best relief pitching in the playoffs, but the starters are probably going to get tagged by the Rangers hitters. We've seen teams get through rounds with their bullpen leading the way, but typically there are one or two starters that at least provide one or two games where they go deep and preserve the 'pen. I'm not sure the Orioles have that.

Even the books don't think there is a clear edge in this series as the price is listed at -110 both ways. The Orioles do have the home-field advantage in this best-of-five series. I think the Rangers take this series and will put a unit on it. They proved that the Rays pitching was no match for them and did it on the road (though the Rays didn't really have any home-field edge in that series). I think the Orioles staff is worse than the Rangers and I do think the arms for the Rangers, at least starters, are more reliable. It could go five games, but I think the Rangers take it.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 28: Corey Seager #5 of the Texas Rangers in action against the New York Mets during a game at Citi Field on August 28, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Twins vs. Astros

The Twins are now 2-0 in the playoffs and are officially 2-18 over their last 20 playoff games. I've always said, those type of things are funny to talk about, but really don't matter. The players in those 18 losses weren't the same, the setting wasn't the same, and the opponent wasn't the same, the only thing that was the same was the outcome. That changed quickly. I was all in on the Blue Jays. I thought they had what it would take to get not only out of that round, but to the World Series. I was wrong and it cost me (and any reader that followed) money. I still find the Twins to be lacking offensively, and I think the pitching staff will be exposed in a longer series. However, Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray looked great but will probably only be able to pitch once each in the series. The Astros will have had plenty of time and certainly have the experience to get the job done. They not only have the home-field advantage, but they are able to line up their rotation the way they want and can have Justin Verlander or Framber Valdez pitch twice if needed.

The offense for the Astros probably is better than that of the Blue Jays, but I was pretty high on Toronto. Houston's offense is better in every statistical category with the exception of home runs. But, the Twins are better in every pitching category. Maybe I have undervalued the Twins too much because of them playing in the AL Central, and they are better than I think. I doubt it, but it is possible. The Astros are actually a reasonable -160 to win the series. I recommend that, but as an official play, I'm going to shoot a shot here (keep in mind this is lower than a unit for me) and take Houston, Houston, Minnesota, Houston at +900 for the exact outcome of the series. Part of the reason is I try to not give out a play at -140 or higher, but I will play the Astros at -160 personally.

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