AFC East Best Bet: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins Exacta Box

"Exacta box" is a horse racing bet where you take two horses to finish a race 1st and 2nd in either order. My horses for the AFC East divisional race are the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a +110 line for Buffalo and Miami to finish top two in the AFC East.

Everyone is high on the Bills and rightfully so. Buffalo is the NFL's most complete team when factoring in talent, coaching and continuity. The Bills are the AFC Favorites (+275) and Super Bowl favorites (+550) and QB Josh Allen has the best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP (+650).

Also, Buffalo is the 2nd-biggest division favorite at -240 to win the AFC East. It would take an injury to Allen or cluster injuries to Buffalo's offensive line or defense for the Bills to fall below second in the division.

But, the Miami Dolphins hired former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel as head coach this offseason. Hope is McDaniel will bring his former boss Kyle Shanahan's scheme with him to get more out of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The McDaniel hire will pay off for the Dolphins because their offense has enough weapons for Tua to succeed. And Miami's defense retained a lot of its personnel from the previously defensive-minded regime.

Buying Dolphins' Stock

What do you know about Shanahan's offenses? They do a good job getting the ball to wide receivers in space. Miami traded for 3-time All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill aka the Cheetah and signed slot WR Cedric Wilson Jr. from the Dallas Cowboys this offseason.

Hill joins 2nd-year WR Jaylen Waddle and forms the AFC East's best WR tandem. Waddle caught 104 balls with 1,015 receiving yards in his rookie season. Hill and Waddle are going to be a nightmare to tackle in the open field. Also, the market is too low on Tua.

Miami drafted Tua after he suffered a terrible hip injury in his final season for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Tua played for a head coach who didn't like him in his 1st two seasons. He had two different playbooks and played behind a terrible offensive line.

Furthermore, Miami's defense won't regress despite parting ways with former head coach, and defensive whiz, Brian Flores. The Dolphins retained their defensive coordinator, has one of the NFL's best secondaries and three top-15 defensive linemen, per Pro Football Focus.

Truth be told, I don't hate the Dolphins to go Over their regular season win total (9 at +100) or "Yes, Miami makes the playoffs" (+140). However, the AFC is loaded and 10 wins might not be good enough to secure an AFC Wild Card berth.

BET the BUFFALO BILLS & MIAMI DOLPHINS (+110) TO FINISH TOP-TWO in the AFC EAST (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Written by
Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.