A Total Play in Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Yankees vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

I've given out two plays in two days for the Yankees vs. Blue Jays and we've cashed them both. The Yankees locked up the AL East last night, and while it was more of a formality than anything, it was still something to check off the list. The team accomplished what it needed to, but the attention remains on every single Aaron Judge at-bat.

Tonight the Yankees have ace Gerrit Cole starting. When is the last time you saw Cole listed as a favorite as low as -125? Part of me thinks it is an expectation that the Yankees may start to rest their starters (Judge excluded). The other part of me realizes that Cole has not pitched very well over his last three starts. In all three, he has allowed at least four earned runs. In those three games, he has also allowed seven home runs. Whatever is wrong with Cole needs to be figured out. He has allowed 31 home runs on the season, which seems really excessive. This is actually the second time in his career he has allowed at least 30 homers, but the next one will set a career-high for him. Another reason he is a -125 favorite tonight is that in two starts against the Blue Jays, he has allowed seven earned runs over 11.2 innings.

Mitch White is pitching for the Blue Jays. After a few decent starts with the Blue Jays after coming over from the Dodgers, White has struggled a bit in his most recent five outings. In September, he has allowed 11 earned runs over 12.1 innings. The Blue Jays have lost all five of his past five starts. Only one of those starts was a quality start, and all five of them he allowed at least three earned runs. He did face the Yankees once since he came over and he went four innings and allowed just one earned run.

I don't like the way that White is pitching, and Cole is not in good form. I'm not going to touch the moneyline one way or another. I lean towards the Yankees still winning this one, but I actually think that over 7.5 is a way better angle on this game at -115. White could allow seven or eight runs himself and Cole could allow multiple home runs again - remember the Blue Jays need to win still. Play the over.

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