A Team Still Has To Win With Terrible Squads Facing Off

Nationals vs. Marlins, 1:40 ET

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it many times again. Sports betting brings more good to sports than it does bad. Sure, there are issues occasionally like Jontay Porter in the NBA where a player is an idiot and throws games or does specific things for stats (I still believe that more of this occurs than we will ever realize, but that’s a different story for a different day). But, what sports betting does is give all teams an equal opportunity for review every day. Sure, the casual bettors only check prime time games or their teams, but the savvy bettor knows a game between the Nationals and Marlins pays the same as a bet between the Red Sox and Yankees. 

The Nationals come into this game below average, but at least on the verge of relevancy in the league. They don’t have the big name players or prospects that they once did, but the team at least competes and tries to stay in the conversation. Their hitting has been decent with an average of around .230. That’s not great, but there are a lot of teams with better records than the Nationals who are hitting worse. The problem is the hits don’t really lead to runs unfortunately. They are going to need to start hitting with runners in scoring position or to find other ways to manufacture runs. The team’s staff has been decent enough as well with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Obviously that’s not great, but it could be significantly worse. We talk about this every season since he has joined the club, but Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst signings ever. Since coming to the Nationals, Corbin has pitched just shy of 800 innings. He has allowed 449 earned runs in that time. That’s a lot of runs to allow, basically one every other inning. Like every other team, the Marlins have hit Corbin well, batting .306 against him and having 12 of their 19 hits go for extra bases. 

Apr 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It seems as though the Marlins and White Sox heard about how bad the Athletics would be this year and said "Hold my beer." Miami is on pace to win somewhere around 40 games this season. Losing 100 games is bad, but losing 120 games would be a complete embarrassment. I’m not really sure what is wrong with the team – I mean obviously they can’t hit and are pitching poorly – but the team competed for the playoffs last season and this is an alarming drop off. Their hitting has been worse than the Nationals, but they’ve still scored more runs. Luis Arraez is getting back on track and we are seeing some of the hitters come around. We have to see if they can string together a good stretch of baseball, but they may have buried themselves too much already. Ryan Weathers is taking the ball for the Marlins in this one. He has a 2-2 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s had a very strong month, going 21.2 innings and allowed just six earned runs. He’s been solid against the Marlins in the past, going 3-for-13. 

It is never fun picking a team that is going to lose 100 games, but I have to take the Marlins in this one. The Nationals won’t lose every game that Corbin starts, but he doesn’t give them a lot of opportunities to win games either. The Nationals are almost certainly the better team overall, but in this game, the Marlins should win with Weathers on the mound. Let’s take him through five innings and not worry about bullpen collapses. 

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