A Quartet Of NBA Best Bets For Monday
The NBA In-Season Tournament championship game was the only professional basketball action this past weekend. I did profit off of that game when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers, getting my NBA betting record to 52-53-1 and bankroll to -4.75 units (u).
Four NBA Monday Money-Making Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-125), 7 p.m. ET
The zig-zag angle applies to Cavaliers-Magic Monday. Cleveland beat Orlando 121-11 Wednesday with the Cavs covering as -4.5 home favorites. However, it's tough beating the same team twice in the NBA in a short span.
More importantly, the Magic are 10-2 straight up (SU) at home with a +13.2 scoring margin. They score 14.7 more points per game (PPG). And Orlando's effective shooting rate (eFG%) improves from 50.2% on the road to 56.6% at home.
Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black attempts a layup past Cavaliers big Evan Mobley at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Magic's defense should give Cleveland fits. Orlando is 2nd in defensive rating and the Cavaliers are 22nd offensively. The Magic are 3rd in points off of turnovers per game and the Cavs are 24th in points off of turnovers allowed.
Cleveland is going to be without its best defensive player, PF Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers allow 8.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when Mobley is on the floor, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG) and Orlando has the highest field goal attempt rate at the rim.
My prediction: Magic 119, Cavaliers 110
Denver Nuggets (-140) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
First of all, the Nuggets have been a terrible team to back on the road. They are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) this season as road favorites with a -5.9 spread differential. The Hawks are playing even worse recently. They are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS entering Monday.
That said, this is a "buy-low" point for Denver who's lost three straight (0-3 ATS). Over the last three seasons, the Nuggets are 47-14 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses, according to CTG, which includes 5-0 SU this season with a +12.1 net rating in non-garbage time.
Hawks big Clint Capela defends Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic in an NBA game at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
The Hawks are just 3-6 SU at home this season. They allow 126.1 PPG at home and opponents are shooting 41.4% from behind the arc in Atlanta. Also, Denver is fully healthy and has a title-winning starting 5.
Finally, Hawks PG Trae Young returns after missing Atlanta's 125-114 loss Friday at the Philadelphia 76ers. This is subtraction by addition for Atlanta. Trae is an All-Star. But, he's one of my least favorite NBA players because he doesn't play defense or move without the ball.
My prediction: Nuggets 121, Hawks 117
OVER 232.5 in Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Chicago has gone Over the total in six of its past seven games and Milwaukee's 4-game Over streak snapped in the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals vs. the Indiana Pacers Thursday. However, that Pacers-Bucks meeting had a 257-point total because Milwaukee is an "Over team".
The Bucks are 3rd in offensive rating, 23rd in defensive rating, and 2nd in eFG%. While the Bulls are 21st in defensive rating and 23rd in defensive eFG%. They allow 116.9 PPG on the road, compared to 109.1 PPG in Chicago.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo dunks the ball vs. the Bulls at the United Center in Chicago. (Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Milwaukee is 5th in Pace whereas Chicago plays at the slowest pace in the NBA. But, since the Bucks are one of the best offensive teams in the Association, the Bulls will have to speed up their tempo.
Chicago has the worst defensive shot quality in the NBA, per CTG. Milwaukee is 4th in offensive shot quality, and the Bulls allow the 2nd-highest-rate of wide-open 3-pointers. Chicago is missing SG Zach LaVine who's a ball-stopper and his absence could make the Bulls tougher to defend.
My prediction: Bucks 125, Bulls 114
Brooklyn Nets (+4.5) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
I'm higher on this Nets team relative to the market. In fact, I'd argue these rosters are equal and home-court edge is only worth +2.5 points, per TeamRankings.com. Plus, Brooklyn's 3-point shooting goes from 37.0% at home to 41.8% on the road.
The Nets rank higher in Basketball Reference's "Simple Rating System", which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. DunksAndThree.com accounts for strength of schedule and says Brooklyn has a higher net rating.
Nets combo guard Spencer Dinwiddie keeps the ball away from Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
Sacramento shoots a high volume of short-mid-range jumpers. Well, the Nets are 3rd in defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range jumpers, per CTG. The Kings are 22nd in shot quality and Brooklyn is 7th.
Lastly, Sactown opened as -5 favorites and the market has steamed down to the current number of -4.5. Per Pregame.com, close to 60% of the bets are on the Kings yet roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Nets as of 2:45 p.m. ET Monday.